Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 131009
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
409 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The surface trough is passing across the area this morning. For the
most part only areas along the northern/eastern periphery of this
feature have received measurable precipitation, with other areas
being too dry thus far. Continue to expect the majority of the
measurable precipitation to fall from north central MN across west
central WI (generally north of I-94), where some light freezing
precip and 1-3 inches of snow are possible. Given the potential for
a slick morning commute in these areas, decided to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory through early afternoon.

Eventually the rest of the area will see a better potential for
light precip as low level moisture (clouds) wrap around the backside
of the system. However at that time the threat for freezing precip
will be diminishing and the lift waning.

Over western Minnesota, the Wind Advisory looks to be in good shape.
Expect winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH at times. Given
the measurable snow is falling east of the area with the strongest
winds and the biggest impact should be the winds, have kept it as a
wind advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A relatively quiet end to the week lies ahead. A wave will pass
south across the Dakotas Thursday, keeping the best chance of
steady snow to our west. Cyclonic flow within the trough through
Friday will allow for plenty of clouds and scattered flurries,
however.

A better organized clipper will develop Friday across southern
Canada. Like the last several, a narrow band of snow along and
north of the track could bring some accumulations mainly north of
I-94. Meanwhile, another trough over the northern Rockies may try
to phase with a cut off low over Mexico, bringing aggressive
moisture advection northward across the lower Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley. Models currently depict the low getting
caught up in the strengthening southwesterly flow and shearing out
as it lifts quickly northeast. Additional energy remains back
over the Desert Southwest. If the energy from northern Mexico
phases with the trough approaching from the west, there could be a
big system over the center of the country this weekend. None of
the deterministic guidance is showing this currently, with the
progressive northern stream likely a culprit in orphaning energy
across the southwestern U.S. It`s something to watch nonetheless.

Temperatures through the forecast period will be above normal, but
there are signs in the extended guidance toward the weekend of
Christmas that arctic air could unload on the center of the
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

MVFR ceilings will spread across the area between 09z and 13z in
the wake of a trough dropping across the area. There is still a
chance of -FZDZ overnight and Wednesday morning...although
soundings are really dry so precip amounts look meager. Periods of
IFR cigs look possible throughout the day. South/southeast winds
will shift to the northwest on Wednesday morning and increase to
sustained 20-30kts with gusts to 40 kts.

KMSP...Freezing drizzle still looks possible during the morning
push...09z-13z. Any accumulations look to be light given how dry
the low levels are (a few hundredths of an inch).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.
Sat...Chc MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     WIZ014>016-023-025-027-028.

MN...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064>067-073>076-082>084-091>093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     MNZ042>045-050-052-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS



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