Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDTX 051909
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING FULLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CORRESPONDING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND
ELEVATED MEAN THICKNESS FIELD MAINTAINING A STABLE/CLOUD FREE SKY
AND SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  DESPITE THE LACK
OF CLOUD...STEADY STREAM OF SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS
NORTHWEST CANADA SUSTAINING AN EXTREMELY HAZY MID LEVEL CONDITION...
MAGNIFIED BY THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DOME.
LITTLE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS
TENDING TO EASE EASTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS WILL SUSTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...WITH A NUDGE
UPWARD IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CONTAIN
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM...

NATIONAL WV IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
CIRCULATION LIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT IS DEFINED BY CONSOLIDATING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PIVOTING ACROSS MONTANA. INCREASING SWLY FLOW BENEATH REMNANT
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S AS H85
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TEENS. SOME CONCERN THAT, SIMILAR TO TODAY,
UNEXPECTEDLY HIGH ALBEDO DUE TO SMOKE WILL INHIBIT WARMING POTENTIAL
A BIT, BUT EVOLVING DEEP LAYER SW CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SUSPENDED AEROSOLS THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH A DECENT COVERAGE OF
SMOKE MAY LINGER YET DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST. NO CHANGES TO MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AS GUIDANCE WILL
TYPICALLY UNDERPERFORM UNDER FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
WARM AS SWLY GRADIENT PERSISTS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT INCREASES. LOWS OF 70 STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE UPSTREAM FRONT WILL ENTER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH HEALTHY DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS COURTESY OF THE JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, AS DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS
NORTHEAST, FORCING WILL BE GRADUALLY STRIPPED AWAY LEAVING SE
MICHIGAN WITH A WEAKENING FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING TREND IN
OF OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE. FURTHER, LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TIMING
WILL BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH MODEST MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. SLIGHTLY BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE MARGINAL MLCAPE < 1000 J/KG WILL EXIST
DURING LATER AFTERNOON FROPA. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE LIMITS
ANY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE VERY HIGH PWATS APPROACHING
2 INCHES. INHERITED 60-70 POPS STILL APPROPRIATE.

12Z CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
BORDER SO IT BEARS WATCHING. POPS RETURN WED NIGHT/THU FOR THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE REGION AS MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT. TEMPS ON WED/THU START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HINT AT UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WIND WILL TRANSITION TO A MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WARM STABLE FLOW LIMITING WIND GUSTS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH...STRONGEST
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA
WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 124 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUSTAIN A DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM. NOTEWORTHY ELEMENT OF
HAZINESS IN THE MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO SETTLE
TOWARD THE SURFACE TONIGHT AS COOLING SETS IN AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE. WILL GO AHEAD WITH A DEFINED MENTION OF 4-6 SM
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR THE EARLY MORNING/PRE-DAWN PERIOD.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.