Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 161159
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
759 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and mild today as southwest winds gust around 35 mph.

- There is also a chance of showers as a cold front moves through
the region; around noon toward the Tri Cities, mid to late afternoon
toward metro Detroit.

- A surge of cold air follows tonight and Sunday which is then
reinforced Monday through Thursday next week, supporting
temperatures around or slightly below normal. Chance of
flurries/light snow showers at times as well.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prefrontal southwest winds will be increasing this morning as mixing
depths increase into the early afternoon. Forecast soundings
indicate depths tapping into 30+ knots of low level flow, which will
bring west-southwest wind gusts mostly in the 25 to 30 knot range
with gusts exceeding 30 knots at times. Increasing mid level
moisture will arrive ahead of the advancing cold front allowing for
a window for light rain showers this afternoon, mainly from PTK and
terminals south. Best moisture remains in the mid levels resulting
in VFR conditions that will prevail through today. Winds ease after
00Z this evening as winds turn more northwesterly behind the front.

For DTW...Winds veer from southwest to westerly late this afternoon.
Gusts expected to be mainly in the 25-30 knot range with some gusts
to over 30 knots. This may bring crosswind concerns. Light showers
may also accompany the front in the afternoon.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today.

* Low for crosswind thresholds being exceeded this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

DISCUSSION...

Latest water vapory shows large mid-upper level circulation/trough
centered over northern Ontario, with a good deal of upper level
PV/energy diving southeast from Central Canada. Trough axis will
moving through the Western Great Lakes today, and there may be just
enough moisture/850-700 MB Theta-e ridging, especially along a ADG-
PHN line and points south to activate the baroclinic zone/FGEN this
afternoon as large scale ascent arrives. Still looking at breezy
southwest winds today ahead of the cold front passage, with up to 40
knots of flow at 850 MB conducive for gusts 30-35 mph during the
day. Timing of clouds and possible showers will determine maxes, as
there is some variability indicated amongst the forecasted 850 MB
temps at 21z, ranging from -1 C to ~2 C far southeast. Will continue
to highlight maxes mostly in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the large scale troughs settles over the Great Lakes region
during the rest of the weekend, and reaches the Gulf Coast States by
Monday, noticeably colder air will filter in, as 850 MB temps lower
into the negative lower teens. A clipper system tracking through on
Tuesday will lead to another cold shot for mid week, with 850 MB
temps settling into the negative mid teens.

The cold cyclonic flow will be conducive for periods of lake
enhanced light snow shower/flurry activity, with more broad upper
level support on Tuesday with the surface low tracking through lower
Michigan. Still, some light snow shower activity Sunday
evening/night looks likely with 700 MB cold pool (-20 C) and 500 MB
trough axis tracking through.

MARINE...

A strengthening low pressure system tracks out of central Canada and
across Ontario today. The low will pull a cold front down through
the Great Lakes this afternoon bringing increasing winds and waves
through the weekend and into next week. Winds will increase this
morning out of the southwest ahead of the first front with winds
reaching 25 to 30 knots. Winds turn more westerly tonight and
northwesterly on Sunday with gusts to around 25 knots behind the
front with cold advection resulting in increasing wave heights.
These conditions will persist across portions of the nearshore areas
Sunday and Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
nearshore zones for the 25+ knot southwest winds today and
additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday and
Monday for waves.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DK


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