


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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825 FXUS63 KDTX 100947 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 547 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Trending warmer through the rest of the week, with heat index into the mid to upper 90s on Saturday. - Increasing potential for showers and storms on Friday and Saturday with isolated severe storms and heavy rainfall possible each day. - Drier conditions favored Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION... A moist near surface environment combined with calm wind contributing to some areas of fog and/or very low stratus this morning. Any lingering restrictive condition will rapidly lift as daytime heating gains traction through 13z. Otherwise, a drier environment will remain entrenched today. Outside shot for an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Wind will remains light today, with a general direction from the west to northwest. For DTW/D21 Convection...Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon remains at less than 20 percent. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 DISCUSSION... Confluent northwest upper flow within a background rising height field maintains subsident conditions and an overall stable profile today. Recent rainfall, calm wind, and clear sky overnight were favorable conditions for patchy fog development this morning - this will stick around through sunrise before the July sun mixes out the saturated surface layer. Meanwhile, high pressure building across the Great Lakes is producing northeast surface wind off Lake Huron which has led to an inland push of stratus beneath the inversion. These clouds should likewise mix into a scattered coverage of cumulus this afternoon. Yesterday`s low pressure and cold front weakened and washed out over the region - this will maintain an instability gradient in the vicinity through the day. Models continue to suggest that this, with a boost from convergence along lake breeze boundaries, will be sufficient to overcome the weak cap and trigger a few isolated showers this afternoon. Otherwise most areas stay dry with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. The Friday forecast continues to carry a high degree of uncertainty, even 24 hours out, as it will be sensitive to the development, track, and strength of upstream MCS activity. The ambient environment will be characterized by low amplitude ridging leading to modest height rises through the day. This favors weakly stable conditions absent of forcing mechanism. Embedded in the relatively weak flow beneath the ridge will be several shortwaves originating from ongoing convection over the upper Midwest. The bulk of available CAMs have a similar flavor depicting an MCS emerging out of the MN/WI/IL region tonight and tracking across Lake Michigan early Friday morning. This activity is likely to weaken by the time it reaches mid MI shortly after diurnal minimum, but it still suppresses heights to weaken the cap and lays out an outflow boundary that then serves as a focus for convective initiation later in the afternoon. The strength of the wave will dictate how much moisture and instability is advected into SE MI through the first half of the day, and how much wind shear is available for storms to utilize. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk into the area for the threat of damaging wind gusts should this scenario play out. Heavy rain will also be a threat given PWAT rising back up to the 1.75 to 2.00" range. The latest HREF places a 3+" bullseye over Metro Detroit which is a signal worth monitoring. Another plausible scenario would be that a morning MCS stifles instability recovery and mitigates severe/heavy rain threat later in the day. Will have time to refine the forecast as upstream convective trends are evaluated, but for now have increased PoPs across the area on Friday. The thermal trough in place today will gradually ease out on Friday, with high temps taking a step upward into the mid 80s to around 90. These may be slightly suppressed should a cloudier scenario play out. Saturday is likely to be the warmest day of the week as deep southwest flow sets up ahead of an amplified upper wave emerging out of the Canadian Prairie. Latest guidance places 850mb temp in the 18 to 19 C range which supports highs in the lower 90s and heat index in the mid to upper 90s. Convective trends remain a focus as the wave moves in and takes on a negative tilt over the upper Great Lakes Saturday night. The cold front looks to arrive overnight, but the weakly capped environment and a prefrontal trough look to support convective initiation during peak heating with increasing support from ascent via right entrance jet streak dynamics. Magnitude of wind shear may be a mitigating factor for severe potential as the better jet core passes north of us and not until overnight. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday as well. Relatively cooler weather on Sunday in the wake of the cold front, but then temperatures are likely to trend back toward above normal values early next week as the next ridge builds in from the south, sending 850mb temps back into the upper teens C. High pressure keeps the forecast mostly dry early in the week but then chances for showers and storms increase midweek as the ridge breaks down. MARINE... High pressure to bring tranquil conditions and calm to light winds today through tomorrow. South to southwesterly flow will be reinforced Friday into Saturday as high pressure departs and washes out across New England. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will return this weekend ahead and along a cold front. The strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the front will bring the potential to see non thunderstorm gusts around 20 knots, with localized higher gust potential with any stronger showers and storms. HYDROLOGY... The next period to monitor for potential heavy showers and storms is Friday and Saturday as a hot and humid air mass builds back into the region. The forecast for Friday carries a lot of uncertainty at this stage, but there is the potential for a thunderstorm complex to arrive from the west early in the day and act as a trigger for afternoon showers and storms. If this occurs, the environment would support heavy downpours with rainfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour and slow storm motions leading to localized flooding concerns. Saturday presents a higher likelihood for showers and storms with a similar environment also supportive of a localized flooding risk. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...TF MARINE.......AM HYDROLOGY....TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.