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000
FXUS63 KDTX 141045
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
645 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES (BELOW 10
KFT) FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT BASES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE VFR CATEGORY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARD NOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND SLOWLY DECREASE
TONIGHT...BUT HOLDING AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 310 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE SOLIDLY INTO
THE 40S...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 50 DEGREES...AS WITNESSED AT
MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA YESTERDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE THE COLD FRONT.
MSP ALSO HAD A SNOW DEPTH OF 10 INCHES TO START THE DAY. OUR ISSUE
LOOKS TO BE MORE WITH CLOUDS. EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS PUSHED NORTH
PER 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...THE 925-850 MB LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY...AND DO THINK WE WILL SEE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES AND ALLOW FOR MORNING SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO FEATURE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS...THEN DOWN LOW AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE IS OVERALL LEAN...BUT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ENERGY OVER THE DAKOTAS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND WORTHY
OF CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IF ONE SIDES WITH THE GFS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE INITIALLY
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW (IF PRECIPITATION EVEN MATERIALIZES)...BUT
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE SEEMS IN ORDER AS
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DESCENDS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

LONG TERM...

QUIET PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RATHER CHILLY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 20S WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10.

A RATHER VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
INTO THE TENNESSEE/SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...BUT CURRENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIRMASS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA LIMITING ANY NORTHWARD PUSH OF THIS SYSTEM INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WILL BE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEKEND JUST AS THE FIRST SYSTEM BYPASSES THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND TAKES A TRACK OVER OR
JUST WEST OF THE AREA AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK 40 OR BETTER BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...A MIX OR
RAIN OR SNOW CAN BE EXPECT IN THE TIME FRAME AS WELL AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT KEEPS MUCH OF THE PERIOD QUIET BECOMES RE-POSITIONED
OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND.

MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE HURON AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...AND THEN VEER TO NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE IDEAL...EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO REMAIN BELOW GALES...EVEN AS THE DEEPER COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....99
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....DG
MARINE.......DG


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