Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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953
FXUS63 KDTX 261727
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
127 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016


.AVIATION...

The center of an area of high pressure is drifting over lower
Michigan this afternoon. This will provide light and variable winds
across the region into the overnight. Winds will then become west-
southwesterly for the remainder of the period. Some diurnal cu
around 5-7kft have developed and will persist through the evening.
Otherwise clear skies.

For DTW... Afternoon cu should lift and thin out through the early
evening. The lake breeze off Lake Erie is already making good
progress inland and should reach the terminal around 19Z.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure centered over the area will continue to bring
quiet weather. Light gradient and 10-20 degree F difference between
the land and water temperatures over the Great Lakes should illicit
a lake breeze response during the afternoon. Otherwise, scant
moisture beneath a mid-level inversion should keep skies mostly
sunny. Temperatures will remain warm and above normal today in the
mid to upper 80s, although a few sites inland may hit 90.

Upper wave crossing Ontario will push a cold front down into the
northern Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Lower Michigan
Wednesday. Models continue to stall the front over south-central
Lower late in the day as it becomes displaced from upper forcing and
becomes orientated parallel to flow aloft. Ribbon of theta-e
ahead/along the front and aid in production of showers and
thunderstorms, but still only expect to see a scattered coverage
given preceding dry airmass.

Shortwave energy over the Northern Rockies is forecast to ride
western flow into Michigan by late Wednesday night and Thursday,
while another weak cold front is pushed down into Michigan by energy
dropping into Ontario. This will renew chances for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday night, with the
passage of the upper shortwave this time providing higher confidence
for scattered showers and thunderstorms. After another warm day on
Wednesday, the front will cool temperatures back into the low/mid
80s for Thursday and more towards the low 80s by Friday and Saturday.

GFS/GEM/Euro continue to show a weak trough crossing the area Friday
and Saturday, serving to again renew the chance for a lower-end
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast for early next week
is currently dry as upper ridging expands into the Great Lakes, but
will have to watch for smaller shortwaves riding the periphery of
the ridge. These would have the potential to trigger rounds of
rain/thunder either overhead or upstream. Given the absence of
convection or debris clouds, we should begin to see another round of
warm weather next week with temperatures rising back into the mid
and upper 80s by Tuesday.

MARINE...

Observations across Lake Huron show northwest winds generally 10 to
15 knots. High pressure now extending from the central plains into
the upper Midwest will expand across the Great Lakes today. This
will cause wind speeds to decrease through the day and become
somewhat variable in direction. A weak cold front will drop from the
northern Great Lakes across Lower Mi on Wednesday then sink south
into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. This front will provide a chance
for thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday while maintaining
relatively light and variable winds across the lakes.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......SC


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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