Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 262301
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
701 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...

Rapidly diminishing window for shower and thunderstorm development
this evening given the lack of forcing and a slowly stabilizing
environment.  Potential coverage moving forward likely too isolated
to provide any definite mention.  Otherwise simply some lingering
mid/high based cloud cover through the first half of the night.  The
influx of higher low level moisture will introduce the possibility
for some shallow fog and/or low stratus development during the early
morning period.  Largely favor MVFR conditions at this stage, but
possible IFR at one or more terminals right around daybreak.  There
will again be at least a low probability for thunderstorm
development late Thursday.

FOR DTW...Lack of evidence per recent radar and satellite trends to
suggest a greater potential for thunderstorms this evening.  This
will leave a clear sky across the lowest 5000 ft into tonight.  Some
form of low stratus and/or fog development possible during the early
morning period, before mixing into a low VFR stratocu by late
morning.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low for ceiling 5000 FT or less prior to 09z, then moderate
  Friday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms affecting DTW/D21 airspace Friday afternoon
  and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

DISCUSSION...
Forecast area will continue to remain in a warm and humid air mass
into the weekend. Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s
with dew points in the lower 60s.  This is producing cape values 1-
1.5k joules. Convection today so far has been suppressed by
subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface
convergence.  Some showers/tstorms have developed in the Thumb
region from lake breeze convergence but these have struggled to do
much.  Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower
Michigan.  Some activity has developed in the past hour or so in
this region aided by lake breeze convergence.  The ridge currently
over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through
this evening. This will help provide an increase in shower or
thunderstorm development this evening though expect coverage to
remain scattered as the area will also be under the negative
influence of some right exit region subsidence from jet max over
Wisconsin.  The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with
weak mid level ridging moving back in.  Will still carry a small chc
for a shower or storm as atmosphere will remain unstable and any
meso boundary or disturbance could trigger some activity.

Overall conditions will remain the same Friday through Saturday
night as area will continue to ly between ridging along the east
coast and troughing in the Midwest.  Convection will depend on any
meso boundary or disturbance in the southwesterly flow.  Best
chances for shower or storm activity will be afternoon and evening
with heating of the day.  Highs will generally be in the mid 80s and
low mid 60s with the typical cooler daytime highs near the lake
shorelines.

Rain chances will hang around into Sunday as low pressure moves
northeast over the northern Great Lakes region.  As this low pushes
northeast away from the area, ridging will begin to build in from
the west giving the area a break from precip from Memorial Day
through the middle of the week.  There still remains the slight
chance for some scattered showers on Memorial Day, however most
areas should remain dry.  Models are then advertising another low
pressure system moving east across the northern Great Lakes at the
end of the extended period as troughing looks to take hold once
again across the area.

MARINE...

Several weak surface troughs across the region will sustain a chance
of evening thunderstorms. The overall weak sfc gradient across the
region will maintain relatively light winds through Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase again Friday afternoon with
another influx of moisture and instability. A couple of low pressure
systems will track across the western Great Lakes and upper
Mississippi Valley this weekend. These will sustain light south
winds through the weekend while also providing a chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...DRC/SS
MARINE.......SC


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