Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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392
FXUS63 KDTX 282301
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
701 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR cloud mass drifting south across Southeast Michigan will
essentially be the only aviation weather concern this cycle. Given
the mature nature of the cloud structures, expect it will take
advective processes to shuttle the clouds out of the immediate
vicinity. High pressure builds into the region late tonight,
enabling winds to relax considerably. Otherwise, some scattered high
base cumulus are possible Wednesday afternoon, especially over the
southern terminals - but depth and coverage should remain rather
limited.

For DTW...Residual cloud field will slowly filter south while
decaying - and expect skies to clear around 03z. Upstream
observation continue to support ceilings in the 4-5kft range.
Northerly winds will decrease and slowly back to northwesterly by
Wednesday morning.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* High for cig aob 5kft until 29/03z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

Mid level low that tracked across lower Michigan through the base of
the longwave trough, is now lifting northeast through southern
Ontario away from the area. The circulation is impressively tight
looking at visible satellite imagery. There is a filament of
vorticity rotating around the backside of the low, which is trying
to nose into northern Michigan. It sparked a few showers over
northern Lake Huron, but dry air behind the cold front dropping
through mid MI (dewpoints in the 30s!) is quickly eroding them.
This leaves us with the current band of drizzle/light rain showers
currently dropping through the area. These showers are light and
precipitation likely won`t be enough to coat the ground. This will
continue to work south and east through the late afternoon. High
pressure will start building into the area tonight, bringing with it
the dry air already moving into northern Michigan. Low temperatures
tonight will get somewhat chilly by June standards, falling into the
mid 40s for most locations.

The aforementioned dome of high pressure will then center itself
over southern Michigan by Wednesday evening. The boundary layer will
warm slightly through the day as mid level heights rise, but
northerly flow at the surface will hinder better response in max
temperatures. Still should come in just shy of normal in the upper
70s.

The next chance of rain will come Thursday night into Friday as the
next front drops through the state. Once again it will be associated
with a low pressure system tracking across southern Canada. Overall
the setup doesn`t look too good. The prefrontal forcing will move
through during the diurnal minimum Thursday night, with fading fgen,
low instability, and little moisture as lack of return flow in
advance keeps pwats around an inch. Slight adjustment in timing of
the chance pops overnight, pushing it back a bit. Will continue to
leave convection out of the forecast overnight due to lack of any
instability or concentrated forcing.

Model consensus favors cold frontal passage early Friday. With
deeper moisture exiting, expect a chance of showers and perhaps an
isolated storm early in the day with a drying trend in the
afternoon. As the upper trough rotates east, surface high pressure
is expected to quickly build in and hold firm through the holiday
weekend. Temperatures Friday through Monday are expected to start a
bit below normal with a gradual warming trend as the longwave trough
shifts east and upper heights rise.

MARINE...

Small craft advisories will expire this evening as northwest winds
and waves subside in response to building high pressure. Light to
moderate winds will then persist through Thursday under weak
gradient conditions. Northwest winds will ramp up again in response
to another cold front Friday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....Mann
DISCUSSION...DRK/DT
MARINE.......JVC


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