Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 311938
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STEADILY DECLINING RADAR COVERAGE...WITH
MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY 00Z. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
COMING DOWN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (NORMAL LOWS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...WE ARE SET UP FOR A COLD NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING LINE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...PER 12Z NAM RH AT 850 MB. EVEN IF CLEARING
OCCURS A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WHICH SHOULD HOLD UP TEMPS ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FROST FORMATION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS CHECKING IN AROUND 40 DEGREES.
SAGINAW LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CLIMATE SITE WHICH MAY COME CLOSE TO A
RECORD LOW FOR JUNE 1ST...37 DEGREES (2003)...BUT AGAIN THE
NORTHEAST WIND OFF SAGINAW BAY WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THIS FROM
HAPPENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL REMAIN DEFINED BY A
COOLER NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED SOUTH
OF ELONGATING SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING OFF FROM A 1033 MB HIGH
SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS QUEBEC.  SOME LINGERING EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS ON MONDAY...BEFORE DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH AND ENSUING DAYTIME HEATING WORKS TO MIX
OUT THIS MOISTURE.  EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MIXING MODEST...LIMITING THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE.  HIGHS
PREDOMINATELY WITHIN THE 60 TO 65F RANGE...UPPER 50S FOR THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW.  DRY/STABLE
PROFILE WITH PLENTY OF SUN INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES A
GREATER CONTROL.  GENERAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS THICKNESSES SLOWLY
INCREASE WILL PROVIDE A NUDGE UPWARD IN HIGHS...WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS BACK UP AROUND 70 DEGREES /AGAIN COOLER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE/.

THINGS ARE LOOKING RATHER UNEVENTFUL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF
RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS LIFTING FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE 12Z GFS/EURO DIG AN UPPER WAVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY TO HANDLE THIS. EARLY
INDICATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS DRY AND SEASONABLE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY WILL SUSTAIN THE ONGOING GALES ACROSS SAGINAW
BAY FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS.  THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 101 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL DRYING OCCURRING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. FIRST INDICATIONS WILL BE CLOUD BASES RISING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CATEGORY...AND THEN LOW
VFR THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING LINE OVER MBS DRIFTING SOUTH
TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT HAVE OR
WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER
MBS...WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS ELSEWHERE.

FOR DTW...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...DWINDLING
TO JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY EARLY EVENING. GRADUAL DRYING
TAKING PLACE TONIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO CLEAR LOW VFR DECK
OF CLOUDS. HAVE SCATTERED OUT THE CLOUDS AT 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ON THAT EXACT TIMING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW TOMORROW MORNING

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ048-
     054.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ441>443.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR/DT
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....SF


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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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