Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 011730
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015


.AVIATION...

DEFORMATION FORCING BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATIONS HAS
LED TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. IN CONTRAST...DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT PERSITENCE WITH THE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS BEFORE SKIES TREND TO SKC
OVERNIGHT. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...NOW OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ONTRAIO/NIAGARA ESCARPMENT WILL WORK SOUTHWESTWARDINTO
THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE AMOUNT OF
LOW CLOUD THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE STATE. DIURNAL HEATING
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO WORK WITH THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
GENERATE A HEALTHY CUMULUS RESPONSE ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE/RIVER INFLUENCES.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 340 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LINGERING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NE FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD
ACCELERATE THE EROSION OF ANY LINGERING POST SUNRISE LOW CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...STREAMING NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SLIDING NORTH OF LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
DAY...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR ENTRENCHED IN THE
REGION AND A SUSTAINED E-NE FLOW OFF THE LAKES TODAY WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON MIXING DEPTHS. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE HURON/.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS SRN MI TONIGHT. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
QUITE WEAK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM SAGINAW BAY.
THE COLDEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL THUMB AND MIDLAND
COUNTY...WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE. A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE MOIST SOIL
FROM THE RECENT RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA FROM THE ERN LAKE ERIE BASIN OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT
FCST MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...

HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE EASTERLY QUADRANT AND SUPPRESSED MIXING HEIGHTS AGAINST A
BACKGROUND OF A GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION. MEANWHILE, DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT AN ABSENCE OF NOTEWORTHY DIURNAL CU COVERAGE
WHILE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS ARE DEFLECTED NORTH WITHIN THE PRIMARY
CORRIDOR OF BAROCLINIC WESTERLIES.

THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN PRIME TERRITORY FOR FULL
DAYTIME INSOLATION THROUGH MIDWEEK AND NICE DAYTIME WX TO BEGIN
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. HIGHS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES OVER TODAY,
LIKELY APPROACHING 70 AT ALL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LAKE SHADOWED LOCATIONS WHICH WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER.
GRADIENT WIND AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL INHIBIT RADIATING POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE M59 CORRIDOR, BUT THE STRONG LAKE
AGGREGATE CONTRIBUTION INDICATED BY THE NAM WILL FAVOR AN INCREASED
LIKLIHOOD OF FULL DECOUPLING ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE LOWS SHOULD
EASILY FALL INTO THE MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIMILAR WX
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY WITH FURTHER AIRMAASS MODIFICATION SUPPORTING
LOW TO MID 70S, WARMEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS WHICH ARE
GENERALLY WARMER IN SE FLOW. TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS
SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPS OF 75 TO 80.

MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY WILL SUSTAIN THE ONGOING GALES ACROSS SAGINAW
BAY FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS.  THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......JVC


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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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