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763
FXUS63 KDTX 240750
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
350 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Broad mid level troughing will grip the Great Lakes region
throughout the upcoming weekend.  The subsequent suppression of the
mean thickness field under prevailing deep layer west-northwest flow
will maintain a cooler and less humid resident environment during
this time.  The combination of cooler mid level temperatures and
near surface diabatic heating will establish a steep lapse rate
environment for substantial diurnal cu growth today.  This ascent
will be augmented this afternoon by the arrival of a shortwave and
cold pool, as energetic northwest flow directs a series of
perturbations into the base of the mean trough over the next several
days.  Recent model guidance remains supportive of an increase in
shower coverage as weak instability emerges beneath the inbound cold
pool and with the small scale increase in cyclonic flow.   Higher
probability of development with northward extent given favorable
positioning, which should translate into a scattered coverage of
showers with isolated thunderstorms largely impacting the tri-
cities/thumb down through the I-69 corridor.   MLCAPE reaches
upwards of 800 J/KG, perhaps sufficient to generate a deep enough
updraft to support small hail given the lower freezing levels.
Paltry deep layer wind fields will preclude a greater risk of
organized development.

A stronger wave will lift across central lower MI late tonight into
early Sunday.  This will yield a period of greater forced ascent,
potentially capitalizing on sufficient moisture and steep lapse
rates at the mid levels to produce another round of scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms.  Should the timing prove a touch
slower allowing for greater diurnally driven low level
destabilization, then a localized region of higher coverage will be
plausible.  This wave will lead in a secondary period of cold air
advection for Sunday, as 850 mb temperatures dip into the 5-6C
range.  This will place highs in vicinity of 70 degrees all
locations, or a good 10 degrees below normal.

Timing of any subsequent shortwaves remains too ill-defined to
provide greater detail, but it generally appears SE Michigan will
remain susceptible to additional bouts of heightened cva and cold pool
intrusions through Monday.  A scattered shower/isolated thunder
mention remains highlighted for the Monday period.  Neutral
temperature advection under this relatively static pattern will
again ensure temperatures remain well below normal to begin the work
week.  Airmass modification commences beginning Tuesday as the upper
trough axis eases eastward and upper heights begin to recover.  Warm
air advection then ramps up Wednesday, with temperatures returning
to around average for midweek.

&&

.MARINE...

West to northwest flow will be maintained through the weekend
between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure building
through the Plains and into Tennessee Valley. The highest speeds
will be over western Lake Erie where the gradient will be a little
tighter, resulting in gusts that will just top 20 knots both this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers, and possibly a
thunderstorm, are also expected each afternoon. Weak low pressure
tracking through the area will bring scattered to numerous showers
and a few thunderstorms Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

AVIATION...

Cooler and much drier air has filtered into southeastern Michigan
this evening. Impressive shortwave feature with some linkage to
upper level jet entrance region has resulted in aggressive
altostratus and a tiny amount of virga over southern Lower Michigan
this evening. Cold advection and stability just too tough to
overcome. A ribbon of midlevel moisture will linger back over the
central Great Lakes late tonight keeping altostratus around. This
ribbon of moisture will then result in boundary layer cumulus
development late Saturday morning along with some shower and
isolated thunderstorm potential over the northern cwa Saturday
afternoon.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium confidence in ceilings aob 5kft Saturday afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO

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