Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 051053
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
653 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...

DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS EXIST AREAWIDE TODAY.  SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE DIURNAL MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN AN
EXPANDING AFTERNOON CU FIELD.  PLACEMENT OF CLOUD BASES AT THE 4-6K
FT RANGE.  MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOOON.  GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 20 KNOT RANGE.  LOSS OF DIURNAL
SUPPORT WILL BRING A RAPID REDUCTION IN BOTH CLOUD COVERAGE AND WIND
MAGNITUDE/GUSTINESS THIS EVENING.

FOR DTW...ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY INITIATE A FEW-SCT 5000 FT
DECK BY LATE MORNING...GREATER POTENTIAL OF CLOUD COVER AFTER NOON.
THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT PRIOR TO 16Z...MEDIUM THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 310 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

DISCUSSION...

HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WITH DEEP
CLOSED LOWS FLANKING A STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNING`S DEPARTING LOW WILL SPELL STEADY HEIGHT RISES FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR TODAY, DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS AGAINST THE BACKGROUND
HEIGHT RISES. THE SHEAR AXIS DEMARCATED BY THE RIBBON OF DRY AIR ON
WV IMAGERY OVER WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY BE PULLED SOUTH
AND EAST. ATTENDANT FORCING/WEAK PV ADVECTION MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
AGITATE A LOW-TOPPED CU FIELD CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN CWA DURING PEAK HEATING.
ATTM...NOTHING WORTH A WX MENTION IN THE GRIDS. EAST OF THE US-23
CORRIDOR EXPECT COMPARATIVELY LESS CU COVERAGE WITH STABLE NORTH
FLOW COMING OFF OF LAKE HURON. H85 TEMPS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE A DEEP MIXED LAYER SUPPORTIVE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...HIGHEST READINGS FURTHEST FROM LAKE
HURON OVER INTERIOR/WESTERN AREAS AS WELL AS DETROIT METRO.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT ROUND OF HIGH-LATITUDE PAC ENERGY DIVES SE OUT OF NW CANADA.
SUBSEQUENT AMPLIFICATION WILL SUPPORT AGGRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES TONIGHT AND THE EVENTUAL INTRODUCTION OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
A BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. NO COMPLAINTS WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY
WHERE EVENTUAL DECOUPLING UNDER CLEARING SKY IS LIKELY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE CHOICE DAY OF THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORCED OVERHEAD AND THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT TURNS SW.
ADIABATIC MIXING AND FULL INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NEAR
70 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SW GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP FRIDAY
NIGHT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 50 DEGREES.

AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN ENERGY IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF OVER ONTARIO
AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WRAPS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES
BAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
NORTHERN ORIGINS OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE QUALITY, BUT
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING SUPPORTS HIGH LIKELY POPS DURING THE DAY.
MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT THUNDER MENTION BUT CAPE
PROFILES ATTM APPEAR SKINNY DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THUS LIMITING SEVERE WX CONCERN.

MARINE...

MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD FIRM TODAY IN BETWEEN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE AND THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING TOWARD THE
REGION.  DESPITE THE EXISTING ONSHORE FLOW...WAVE GROWTH WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY MODEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN
CONDITIONS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND NO
HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.  STRETCH OF FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ONLY A
MODEST INCREASE TO THE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.  THIS
FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...JVC
MARINE.......MR


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