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000
FXUS63 KDTX 141623
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1223 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE ACTIVE WARM SECTOR THAT BROUGHT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH THIS MORNING HAS NOW BEEN SQUEEZED EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THE 14.12Z KDTX SOUNDING SHOWED THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND WELL WITH A MIXED ATMOSPHERE FROM
THE SURFACE TO 7 KFT AGL. THE MAIN COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS NOW
BISECTING THE CWA IN HALF WHICH WILL USHER IN A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE FALL OF ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES...WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ALREADY IN THE LOW 40S.
BEFORE THE COLDER AND MORE DENSE AIR MASS MAKES IT HERE...LOOKING
AT A FEW HOUR PERIOD WHERE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND...CANCELLED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT.

THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS CAUGHT UP TO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE AND SUBSIDENCE HAS ENDED THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. FOR THIS REASON...ENDED THE FLOOD WATCH.
QUIET WEATHER IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT IS NOW EXPECTED
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 3Z TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO WORK
INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 710 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MILD BUT GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE IN PLACE TO
START THE MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR. POCKETS OF SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40 KNOTS
PRECEDING THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN WORSEN TO LOWER END MVFR
CEILING OVER LARGER AREAS AS THE LOW EXITS AND PULLS A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. SHORT LIVED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS AGAIN
EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON BEFORE A NEW ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER MOVES
IN TONIGHT. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH LOW CEILING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR DTW... A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND 40 KNOT WIND GUSTS. IT MAY BE TOO SOON
IN THE DAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THESE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE BY 17Z WILL PULL COLD AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION DURING THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING ON POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY SURFACES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON PAVED
SURFACES DUE TO HEAT RETENTION FROM RECENT WARM DAYS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS THIS
  MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 415 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A PROTOTYPICAL STRONG SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDE
RANGE OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO SE MICHIGAN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
SUMMARY...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE
MONITORED BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR OVER SE MICHIGAN WITH A BRIEF 45 MPH GUST POSSIBLE
WITH THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITH SUFFICIENT RATE FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY SURFACES MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.

OBSERVATIONS AT PRESS TIME INDICATE IMPRESSIVE EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 OVER MOST OF THE AREA THAT HAS NOT HAD
RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT. THESE READINGS WILL BE THE HIGHS FOR THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF A FEW DEGREES AS RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE REST OF THE REGION...AND OF COURSE MORE SHARPLY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAGINAW
VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB DURING THE MORNING...AND FILL IN OVER THE
REST OF SE MICHIGAN WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WITH THE HELP
OF INCREASING SHORT WAVE SUPPORT ALOFT. THIS PROCESS WILL HELP SHIFT
THE PRIMARY RAINFALL AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE WATCH AREA DURING THE
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THERE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.5 INCH SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA
COULD CONTAIN A LOCAL 1 INCH TOTAL WHEN INCLUDING A SURGE OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.

IMPRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN GET UNDERWAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILE FOR A RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION. FORCING FOR STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION WILL RELOAD WITH A COMBINATION OF SUPPORT WITH THE
PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES CAPABLE OF ACCUMULATING 1 TO
LOCALLY 3 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE WILD
CARD WILL BE ON PAVED SURFACES WHICH WILL TEND TO HOLD ON TO THE
RECENT WARMTH FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.

LONG TERM...

LONGWAVE NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...850 MB TEMPS OF -12
TO -14 C RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...LIKELY CAPPING MAXES BELOW
40 DEGREES...OR NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR APRIL 15TH. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTERSECTING DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY IS IN QUESTION...AS MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE
RETROGRADES/DROPS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...SHEARING OUT
AND DAMPENING THE LEAD WAVE...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN. STILL...INCREASING AND DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD SPELL TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE VERY LEAST.

00Z EURO INDICATING YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

MARINE...

A STRONG COLD WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY...CAUSING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. A GOOD DEAL OF COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...CONDUCIVE TO GOOD WAVE
GROWTH AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP...AND WAVES IN EXCESS
OF 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF LAKE HURON. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 KNOTS OVER ALL MARINE AREAS ALSO SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TUESDAY
EVENING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH...REMAINING LIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

HYDROLOGY...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATES DURING THE NIGHT
INDICATE RAINFALL UNFOLDED ABOUT AS EXPECTED. BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS
RANGE FROM 0.25 INCH TO 0.75 INCH ACROSS THE
CASS...TITTABAWASSEE...AND SAGINAW BASINS SINCE 00Z LAST NIGHT.
THE BULK FELL 00Z-06Z BUT WITH THE CASS ADDING TO TOTALS SINCE
THEN UP TO PRESS TIME AND POSSIBLY PUSHING AN INCH FOR A 12 HR
TOTAL 00Z-12Z THIS MORNING. GAGE OBSERVATIONS ARE ON A SLIGHTLY
STEEPER GLIDE PATH WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ON TRACK FOR OF A
HIGH CONFIDENCE MODERATE STAGE ON THE TITTABAWASSEE...AND
CHALLENGE FOR MAJOR STAGE. OVERNIGHT RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION SHOULD
ALSO KEEP THE CASS RIVER ON PACE TO MATCH THE FORECAST UPDATED
LAST EVENING FOR FLOOD STAGE AT FRANKENMUTH DURING THE MORNING.
DOWNSTREAM ON THE SAGINAW...THERE IS MORE TIME TO ASSESS THE TOTAL
BASIN COLLECTION IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

CLIMATE...

SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON

CITY       2013-2014        RECORD
FLINT       82.6"      82.9" (1974-75)
DETROIT     91.7"      93.6" (1880-81)

LOW MAX RECORDS FOR APRIL 15:

DTW 36 (1904)
FNT 35 (1944)
MBS 33 (1944)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......CB
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....BT
CLIMATE......SF
HYDROLOGY....CB
CLIMATE......CB


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