


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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791 FXUS63 KDTX 301937 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 337 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue through the late afternoon. There remains a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather until around 7pm across all of Southeast Michigan. The most likely threats will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and flooding due to torrential rainfall rates. - Classic summer weather pattern during the middle to end of the week with daytime temperatures hovering in the low to mid into the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Another day featuring high CAPE (pushing 3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis) and low shear (generally around 20 knots) in a very moist environment with surface dewpoints into the low 70s and PWATs exceeding 1.7 inches. Early day clouds helped prevent some destabilization locally, but clearer skies over SW lower lead to rapid destabilization in the vicinity of a prefrontal trough which quickly lead to a line of showers and thunderstorms developing. A mid level pocket of dry air sliding over is also to steepen mid level lapse rates helping some storms to get a little better organized. As we move through the late afternoon and evening, the current line of convection will continue eastward with isolated/scattered storms developing ahead of it. Isolated cells may become strong to severe with pulse type storms producing wet microbursts. So far majority of the storms have struggled to produce winds over 30 knots. These storms are also slow moving tracking eastward around 20 mph so heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a concern. Bulk of the activity will come to an end between 5-7pm today with a few isolated showers/storms possibly lingering until the surface cold front pushes through after 8pm. Longwave trough axis swing through tonight into Tuesday morning. Models try to keep some POPs going through the night along the lead edge of the trough but there isn`t much support for additional activity with instability trending toward zero and synoptic forcing lacking. Will trend POPs down to slight chance for now to give a chance to see the trough upstream and whether its carrying any showers with it. Rest of the week gets quieter as the ridge starts building back through the Plains and sliding eastward through the Mid MS Valley. We`ll largely be in northwesterly flow through the week with a few waves tracking through Canada trying to send some fronts into the region. So can`t rule out a few showers through the week but will take a more notable system like on Sunday to bring more widespread POPs to the region. && .MARINE... A cold front brings scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon with activity gradually winding down tonight as the front clears the area. Light south wind shifts to westerly behind the front, peaking at 15 to 20 kt on Tuesday afternoon. High pressure over the Midwest maintains prevailing westerly wind over the Great Lakes through mid-week. A weak cold front sinks across the area late Wednesday into Thursday with post-frontal northwest wind likely to remain light. High pressure builds across the region on Friday to provide light wind and waves. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 AVIATION... An influx of low and mid level moisture this morning has led to a wide array in ceilings heights across Se Mi, with the metro Detroit terminals experiencing periods of MVFR based ceilings. The gradual departure of the higher cloud deck is opening the door to rapid destabilization across Se Mi. This within a moist and uncapped environment has led to numerous thunderstorms across wrn Lower Mi, which will slowly develop and advance across Se Mi during the early portion of the afternoon. Given the ongoing early convective release, the probabilities of thunderstorms beyond 21Z is less probable and will be left out of the TAFs. Given the potential afternoon convection and abundant low level moisture, some degree of low clouds may linger into the early evening hours before a little bit of low level dry air advection clears them out. For DTW/D21 Convection...The departure of the thicker morning cloud cover is now driving the region of better instability into the metro airspace. The combination of convective development and upstream convection moving into the airspace will likely support scattered to numerous thunderstorms through at least 20 or 21Z. The afternoon convective release will make convection after 21-22Z less probable. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon. * Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......TF AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.