Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 261904
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
304 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT IN
THE RELATIVELY FASTER FLOW TO ITS EAST. DEBRIS CI AND AC WILL MOVE
OVER SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND WILL GO WITH
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. AFTER 03Z...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AGAIN.  THE
ONE EXCEPTION MAYBE THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB REGIONS AS SOME AC
MOVES DOWN FROM THE NW TOWARD DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT THE SAME FOG
ISSUES GIVEN THE FULL DAY OF DRYING WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND DEW
POINTS FALLING IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MET/NAM GUIDANCE IS
LOWER THAN THE MAV/GFS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
MET/NAM GIVE THE CURRENT DEW POINTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS WORKING OVER EXISTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...MARKED BY DEEP LAYER STABILITY UNDER
PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE AND A WARMING MID LEVEL PROFILE.  THE RISING
THICKNESSES AND A HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE WILL TRANSLATE INTO ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH...HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE VICINITY OF 90 DEGREES.  THE
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY /DEWPOINTS MID 60S/
WILL NUDGE LATE DAY HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY.

COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NEXT ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR A PERIOD OF MODEST PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AS SOUTHWEST FLOW TEMPORARILY DEEPENS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST.  GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TOWARD AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE LOCALLY.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
CARRY SOME DEPENDENCE ON THE TIMING...WITH AN EARLIER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AND/OR THICKER CLOUD COVER PROVIDING A GREATER
DISRUPTION TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.  TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN EASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL TO FINISH THE WEEK UNDER DEEPER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO NOSE IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. 12Z GFS/EURO DEPICT UPPER HEIGHTS
FALLING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH ARGUES FOR CHANCE POPS.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 107 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WILL PRODUCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW CU POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS. SOME HI AC
AND CI TO MOVE OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBP
LONG TERM....MANN/DT
MARINE.......MANN
AVIATION.....RBP


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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