Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 050358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY SIGNS OF THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER
SUPPORT FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT
WIND WILL HAVE A MOSTLY NORTHWEST DIRECTION THAT WILL KEEP ANY LAKE
GENERATED CLOUDS OUT OF THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR IN FAVOR OF JUST
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CUMULUS BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK INLAND RELEASE OF
THE LAKE BREEZE COULD ADD A NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE GOING CALM.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 337 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY HAS SENT ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...VERY SIMILAR
TO THAT WHICH WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS MID MI AND WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH SE MI EARLY
TONIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEAKENING. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WERE
ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN MADE
IT INTO THE UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S...VS MID 60S
YESTERDAY...ARE LIMITING THE INSTABILITY THUS THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA HAS KEPT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF PTK. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE
RADIATIVE COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING TO INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH OF
M59 AND MID 50S SOUTH OF M59.

LONG TERM...

AS STRONG UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...EXPECT DRY WEATHER INTO DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AND HOLD INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AROUND CONFLUENCE NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER
EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS.

WITH A DRY AND COOL TO MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RANGE...ON AVERAGE...IN
THE MIDDLE 70S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60...SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE FOR THE LONG RANGE IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND LOW INTENSITY. SUFFICE TO SAY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE TREND STILL AIMING
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON
AT TIMES AS THIS COOLER AIR PUSHES SOUTHEAST. WHILE WAVES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THE NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY SHOULD
LIMIT WAVES ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FIELD EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS THIS HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....DG/DE
MARINE.......DG


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).


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