Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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172
FXUS63 KDTX 062022
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

FOR SECOND DAY IN A ROW...TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WERE PUSHING TOWARD THE 40 DEGREE MARKER WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH OF M-59. QUIET WEATHER TO
PERSIST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT...BUT ENOUGH OF GRADIENT/WARM ADVECTION AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING THROUGH TO MAINTAIN MINS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S PER MET/MAV
GUIDANCE.

COPIOUS AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV OVER WESTERN CANADA PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS REMAINS SPARSE...WITH RADAR ACTIVITY LIMITED AT THE MOMENT.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION/500 MB LOW PROGGED TO
TRACK INTO UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
REMAINS RATHER BROAD...WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/PV
TRACKING THROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE...AS MAX 6 HR
HEIGHT FALL CENTER TRACKS THROUGH ST LOUIS LATE SUNDAY. NARROWING
MOISTURE AXIS (PW VALUES AROUND HALF AN INCH)/850-700 MB THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN 20Z-00Z MONDAY...AND
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL TRAILING WEST...THERE IS GROWING
INDICATIONS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/FRONT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER
TO ACTIVATE...CALLING INTO QUESTION THE LIKELY POPS SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR JUST TOO OUR
EAST...ESPECIALLY AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE TAKING HOLD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY REMAIN WELL ON TRACK
WITH SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 925 MB TEMPS SEEN RISING TO 2 C
PER 12Z EURO...ALONG WITH LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST WE
TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE WARM LAYER
ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ON...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION
HAS DIMINISHED...AND WILL BE CARRYING JUST CHANCE POPS AS 12Z EURO
HAS COME IN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONGST
CANADIAN/GFS/NAM NOW AS WELL. WILL NEED TO WAIT ON THE COLD SURGE
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND ZERO...IF NOT
REACHING 1 C ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 40 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IF STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNABLE TO
GENERATE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COLDER TEMPS BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN US. RH VALUES PROGGED TO BE > 95 IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER TUESDAY ALONG WITH POSSIBLE DEFORMATION FORCING AND
SOME MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKE ARGUES FOR BUMPING UP POPS INTO THE
50-60 RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
MIDLEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
DIMINISHING TREND. COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED BY THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
TO REACH NEAR -20C BY 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE HURON BASIN THIS EVENING. THE
BROAD AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN BECOME RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. MODERATE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY SUNDAY TO
NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 120 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MOST NOTEWORTHY WEATHER ITEM THIS AFTERNOON IS THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WIND IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNT RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WITH DRY AIR WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE MVFR PATCH OF
STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF TOLEDO TO ROLL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
JET ENERGY PUSHES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FROM THE MIDWEST BY THIS
EVENING.

AT DTW...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR CIGS SOUTH OF TOLEDO TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL
WAS IDENTIFIED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION BUT TIMING BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED UP.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR CIG AOB 5KFT 19-21Z.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/DT
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....CB


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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