Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 281655
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1255 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016


.AVIATION...

Temperatures barely eclipsing 60 at noon are indicative of continued
very shallow mixing in spite of what has been suggested by NWP
progs. Suspect that MVFR will still gradually improve to VFR, but
clouds will either mix out late or perhaps not at all today. Highest
confidence for ceilings to clear will simply be the eventual exit of
the moisture axis. NW wind will veer to northerly as high pressure
builds in...becoming variable tonight.

For dtw...Downsloping has proved effective in limiting ceilings so
far today. No reason to expect this to change, so will move forward
with BKN040 until the moisture axis shifts SE of the airfield 22-00z.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* High for cig aob 5kft

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

DISCUSSION...

Upper shortwave will track across Lower Michigan today. Continued
cold air advection behind last night`s frontal passage will steepen
low-level lapse rates, especially after the sun rises and surface
heating commences. Influx of low-level moisture is still ongoing
behind the front early this morning per model data and satellite
imagery. The combination of forcing from the upper trough, moisture
sliding into place, and steepening lapse rates will provide a small
chance for showers early this morning and into the afternoon. Expect
activity to remain fairly isolated as moisture depth will be limited
and as mid-level inversion strengthens/lowers as surface high
pressure and shortwave ridging over the western Great Lakes begin to
shift east. Moisture axis will also shift east with the exiting
upper trough axis this evening, allowing skies to clear overnight.
Most noticeable difference in sensible weather today will be cooler
temperatures in the post-frontal airmass. H850 temperatures falling
into the single digits above zero (C) should provide a drop in
surface temperature on the magnitude of 15 to 20 degrees F. Forecast
highs range from low to mid 70s inland, to the mid 60s over the
northern thumb where cool north flow off Lake Huron will provide an
unseasonably chilly day.

High pressure will expand into the area overnight and hold into
Thursday providing dry and quiet weather. Only other chance for rain
in the forecast (aside from isolated light stuff today) comes
Thursday night into Friday as an upper trough swings across the
area. Cold front associated with this system looks fairly weak and
there does not look to be much instability, even considering the
mostly overnight timing of the frontal passage. There is a chance
activity may linger into Friday, flaring back up along the frontal
boundary as daytime heating commences. Given lack of instability and
preceding dry airmass that must be overcome, feel chance pops are
most appropriate. Otherwise, we will see temperatures recover back
to near 80 by Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures behind the
front again on Friday.

MARINE...
Moderate northerly wind and cooler air will keep waves elevated
today, especially over Saginaw Bay and southern Lake Huron where
small craft advisories remain in effect. The upper level disturbance
driving the cooler air will also produce a few patches of light rain
mainly over the open waters of Lake Huron. High pressure will bring
improved wind and wave conditions tonight through Wednesday before
exiting eastward Thursday. Light south wind will then develop ahead
of the next cold front due in the area Thursday night into Friday.
This front will bring the next chance of rain and will be similar in
strength as today in terms of wind and cooler air.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....JVC
DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT


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