


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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132 FXUS63 KDTX 091958 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 358 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact southeast Michigan between now and 9 PM. - Strongest storms will be capable of isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail. - Isolated flash flooding is possible with these storms, mainly for urban areas where 2 to 3 inches of rain already fell this morning. - Drier conditions are expected Thursday with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances into the weekend. - Warmer conditions this weekend with highs near 90 degrees on Saturday && .DISCUSSION... A weak cold front extends from roughly Saginaw Bay to South Bend and has been the triggering mechanism for convection early this afternoon. While SPC mesoanalysis now shows a broad plume of ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE across all of SE Michigan, there is still a 3-4 degree difference in surface temperatures where clouds/showers lingered this morning (south of I-96). Cumulus development is still underperforming in these areas, but has initiated nonetheless indicating that surface conditions are likely destabilizing. If any storms can sustain an organized cold pool into this area, severe weather will be possible. Further north, boundary layer conditions are still more primed for surface-based convection. Lack of mid- level flow and resultant shear profiles supports pulse to disorganized multicellular behavior with potential for precipitation loaded wind gusts of 40-60 mph. The higher end gusts will likely be isolated in nature. Slow storm motion of 15-20 knots and the high moisture environment will also be supportive of heavy rainfall, to be discussed in the hydrology section. Drier conditions are expected for Thursday as low amplitude ridging builds in aloft. A diurnally-driven stray shower or two is not out of the question (e.g. 12z HRRR) if east flow can draw in a boost of Lake Huron moisture into the boundary layer. Otherwise, the strong subsidence inversion keeps the environment capped. The thermal trough holds firmly in place across the northeast quadrant of CONUS, keeping temperatures seasonable in the low to mid 80s. Unsettled weather then returns Friday into this weekend, beginning with a compact vorticity maximum that barrels across lower Michigan on Friday. This wave slightly outpaces the warm front that lifts into the area overnight Friday, which will be followed by a strong Pacific wave that brings steeper mid-level lapse rates to the region through the weekend. For daytime Friday, this equates to weak instability profiles with light column flow to support general shower and storm chances during peak heating. PoPs then increase through the weekend as low pressure deepens over central Ontario, driving a pre-frontal trough through the area during peak heating Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday. The stronger forcing will capitalize on warm sector instability to generate more organized thunderstorm potential alongside comparatively stronger mid-level flow (30-35 knots). Nocturnal to morning timing of the frontal passage looks to bring temperatures back toward the mid-80s by Sunday, while isentropic downglide supports increasingly stable conditions throughout the day. Ridging builds back into the region early next week, with H5 mean ensemble heights building to 591 dam and temperatures warming back into the upper 80s. && .MARINE... The ongoing passage of a cold front and initiation along lake breezes and storm outflows will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected across the Saginaw Bay into southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and Lake Erie. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts at or above 35 knots, small hail, and heavy downpours. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to wane late tonight leading into early tomorrow morning. Otherwise outside of thunderstorm coverage, the pressure gradient remains weak with a building high pressure reinforcing this weak gradient through late into the week. This brings calm to light winds through Friday. This also bring dry weather tomorrow and Friday, with active weather returning by the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Numerous thunderstorms have developed over western lower Michigan and the Saginaw Valley/Thumb regions and are moving east to southeast at around 15 to 25 mph. These will track across the area between now and 9 pm. The 12z KDTX sounding sampled a moisture rich environment with PWAT values in the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) along with weak westerly column flow. Several localized spots received 2 to 3 inches of rainfall this morning, with some of that rain occurring in the Detroit metropolitan area. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, especially in urban areas, may contribute to flash flooding this evening. This would be most likely if a west to east oriented line of training thunderstorms developed, which would be capable of even higher localized totals. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 AVIATION... Just as the early day convection has pushed east of the area, the next round of storms has already initiated. Areas north of M59 stayed fairly clear today leading to increased instability and thus stronger storms will be possible this afternoon across MBS and FNT. Storms have initiate across western MI and are already impacting MBS as of 18Z and scattered storms will continue through the next few hours eventually drifting southward across FNT and PTK. Storms have also initiated just north of the state line and will continue to advance toward the Detroit taf sites but are a few hours away. Most of the convection should end or push east between 8-10pm. Attention then turns toward fog development tonight as moisture left behind from the storms, elevated dewpoints, and clearing skies lead to favorable conditions for fog. For DTW/D21 Convection...Potential remains for period of thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening ending around 8-10pm. Gusty thunderstorm outflow winds will be possible with any stronger, more organized clusters of storms along with brief heavy downpours. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. * Low for cigs aob 5000 ft this afternoon through tonight. * Low for ceilings/visibilities to drop below 200ft or 1/2SM tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MV MARINE.......AM HYDROLOGY....MV AVIATION.....DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.