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000
FXUS63 KDTX 132049
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE TONIGHT WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE PASSING FROM MINNESOTA AT 18Z TODAY TO NEW YORK
STATE AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 18Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN
WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY WITHIN THE HEART OF THE LEAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS AREA OF FORCING WELL WITH A CLASSIC
REPRESENTATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MID TO HIGH CLOUD. FCST BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND A SMATTERING OF MODEL QPF WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE
THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BREAK OUT WITH THIS FORCING.
INVESTIGATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES IN BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE SINCE THERE IS THE LOOK THAT MODEL PARAMETRIZATIONS
ERRONEOUSLY SATURATING AND INCREASING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN
LOW. PATTERN RECOGNITION AND BIG PICTURE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND SNOWFLAKES WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA...OVER LAKE HURON AND POINTS NORTH.

MAIN EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE AXIS IS SET TO SWING THROUGH
AT/AROUND 12Z IN ADDITION TO THE NEAR SURFACE GEOPOTENTIAL WIND
MAGNITUDES INCREASING TO +30 KNOTS AFTER 6Z TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT
SUPPORT A DECOUPLING SCENARIO AND WENT WITH LOWS TONIGHT REMAINING
IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...

RATHER QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS NORTHERN STREAM ACTIVITY RETREATS A BIT NORTH AND THE ONLY
SOUTHERN SYSTEM OF NOTE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TODAY
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ENTERING WESTERN MANITOBA WILL TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. DYNAMICS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH LEAVING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DRY AND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL FUNNEL
WARM 925MB TEMPS NEAR 10C INTO THE AREA TO BEGIN THE DAY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WARM START, HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE RISING INTO THE
MID 40S, ESPECIALLY WITH A GOOD BIT OF SUN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LACKING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, BUT ONGOING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD ANY
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA, BUT FOR NOW LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A MENTIONABLE POP.
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA
WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE RELATIVELY WARM
COLUMN POINT TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING A POP IN FAVOR OF THE EVENTUAL INTRODUCTION OF DZ/FZDZ.
H85 TEMPS WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SECONDARY FRONT LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S FOR SATURDAY AND MID
20S BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S THROUGH MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE HAVE ONLY KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN RAMPING UP. THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THEY WILL STAY BELOW GALE FORCE. A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY WHILE
USHERING COLD AIR BACK OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1241 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OPAQUE MID-HIGH CLOUD IS CONTINUING TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN FACE OF AN ADVANCING RIDGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT LOWERING OF CIGS DOWN TO 5000 FT AGL AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
DETROIT TERMINALS. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING WILL BECOME QUICKLY
ORIENTATED OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON. STILL EXPECT SOME VIRGA OR
POSSIBLE FLURRIES WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS POSSIBLY FOR
KMBS/KFNT...POTENTIAL REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE AN EXPLICIT
MENTION.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS BRIEFLY FALLING BELOW 5000 FT AGL THIS
  AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....JVC/RK
MARINE.......JVC
AVIATION.....CB


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