Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 260730
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
TRANQUIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FAR NORTHWESTERNMOST PERIPHERY OF A LIGHT PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY JUST CLIP OUR FAR SE
FCST AREA FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING TODAY DOWN TOWARD KJXN WHERE
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW.

OTHERWISE TRANQUIL AND COLD WX IS ANTICIPATED BUT IT WILL BE COLD
WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -16 TO -18 C ALONG THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE BY 12Z FRI. HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT AT UNDER AN INCH AND CONFINED TO OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WX IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND TWENTY
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A RELATIVELY FLAT/ZONAL UPPER FLOW
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE FEATURES TO WATCH.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND SFC
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY... WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN
THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 45 WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR PRECIP TYPE...
ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS A PRE EXISTING DRY AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE PRECIP MAY LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THE LAST TWO OPERATIONAL RUNS THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF QPF
OF NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. IF THIS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY
THERE MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-96 BASED ON TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND THERMAL PROFILES. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE GFS HAS NO HINT OF THIS FEATURE.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OFF THE LAKE EARLY THURSDAY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN AWAY FROM TAF SITES. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FALLING RIVER LEVELS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART LEVELED OFF DUE TO
THE RAIN FROM THIS MORNING. RIVER LEVELS MAY CREEP BACK UP... BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BELOW BANK FULL. FLOODING IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS WEEK...
SO RIVER LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MACZKO
HYDROLOGY...63






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