Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 221716
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
116 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern
through Monday and result in mostly clear skies and a continued
moderating trend of temperatures. High temperatures close to 80
are expected for much of the area through Friday, which is 5 to
10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return late Tuesday and persist through
Saturday with the best chances Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

No impact weather is anticipated. I introduced a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, which is a
slightly earlier onset than the previous forecast. Otherwise, no
noteworthy changes were made. Would not be surprised to see us
reaching the low 80s both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but have
kept the forecast closer to 80 for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The long term portion of the forecast continues to look rather
unsettled and warm for Lower Michigan. We will see the long wave
upper ridge axis shift east of the area by Tue night. This will
allow for a southwest flow aloft to become established over the area
all of the way from the desert southwest.

Short wave troughs will be riding this sw flow aloft up into the
area. Low level srly flow will provide for sufficient moisture
advection from the Gulf of Mexico. We will see intervals of showers
and storms beginning Tuesday night and lasting right on through
Saturday. This does not mean it will be raining all of the time. The
threat of rain will be there everyday, however the timing of
individual waves is impossible to fcst at this time.

The core of the jet stream will remain to our west through the
entire long term. This will ensure that temps will remain warm
through the period with the low level srly flow remaining locked in
place. If enough peaks of sun occur between waves of rain, 80
degrees will be attainable on multiple occasions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Overall vfr weather to prevail into Monday. The atmosphere remains
dry...which will limit the cloud cover. The wind could be variable
this afternoon...but a general north to northeast flow should
dominate. Near the lakeshore...for KMKG...an onshore wind is
forecasted to develop as the inland areas warm up during the day
today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

No concerns in the short term. However, winds from the south will
increase Monday into Monday night allowing waves to build. Higher
waves are expect mainly north of Muskegon where the fetch will be
more favorable.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1229 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

South to southwest flow will develop by Tuesday, allowing for a
moisture laden airmass to park itself through the heart of the
Midwest. This will ultimately lead to an active, wetter pattern
through much of the upcoming week. Though it is not expected to be
continually raining, multiple waves/disturbances will travel from
southwest to northeast through the Great Lakes Region and provide
periods of wet weather. Some long term forecast precipitation
estimates are 2+ inches, in addition to the fact that locally
heavier rain is fairly typical in this type of setup. Despite
recent dry weather, river levels are running slightly above normal
in some locations and could return to near/above bankfull levels,
pending the actual results through next Sunday.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT



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