Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 010727
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
327 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2016

A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening then fair and cooler weather is expected
for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening with
0 to 6 km shear generally less than 30 knots. Sfc based
instability is also weak as sfc heating may be limited by clouds
and showers this morning. Some breaks in ovc are possible later
today based on model RH profiles and upstream satellite trends.

Mostly unidirectional shear profiles suggest convective mode will
be linear with some bowing line segments. Model soundings
indicate tall "skinny" CAPE would limit updraft strength and large
hail threat. So isolated wind gusts and mostly small hail appear
to be the most probable outcome for any storms that do get going.
Time frame would be from late afternoon through the evening.

The cold front clears the eastern zones late tonight and showers
should come to an end. Fair and cooler weather with low humidity
then arrives for Thursday and Friday under sfc ridging. Warm
advection pattern and isentropic ascent develops across Wisconsin
late Friday afternoon but any showers should remain west of Lower
Michigan.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Low pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will move east Friday
causing creating the possibility of showers Friday night. The south
flow ahead of the low will push temperatures to the upper 70s Friday
and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday as the
cold front moves through. The supporting upper trough will deepen as
it moves toward the Great Lakes and cooler air will be brought south
from Canada. H8 temps fall to around +6c Sunday and +5c Monday. This
should result in sfc highs Sunday around 70 and in the 60s Monday.
The cool temps aloft will likely create enough instability for
showers to develop Monday before diminishing Monday night. Much of
Tuesday will be dry with highs around 70. Overall, cooler and less
humid weather is on the way.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Radar shows weak showers moving north along the lake shore. this
should continue overnight and affect MKG and AZO. As a cold front
moves across the lake later this afternoon thunderstorms are
expected to develop most likely after 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2016

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
the next few days, but there will be a few gusts around 20 knots
today ahead of the cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

River levels are stable or slowly falling and near normal for this
time of year. Parts of the Kalamazoo basin are even slightly below
normal. We expect around half an inch or less of rain Wednesday
into Thursday, which should produce only minor rises. This period
of rain will be followed by dry weather through the end of the
work week. This should help to limit the magnitude of the rises.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...Ostuno



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