Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 170339
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1139 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A period of enjoyable fall weather will be settling in across the
region through this week. Plenty of sunshine can be expected during
the day, with mainly clear nights expected. Temperatures will be on
the rebound through the period, with highs likely touching 70 on
multiple days this week.

The next chance for rain is not expected to come before Saturday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Really no impacts expected through the short term period. A few
sprinkles have developed in the cloud field this afternoon as the
upper jet core shifts east of the area. These will shift east of the
area by mid-evening and dissipate toward sunset. Upper ridging will
build in tonight and last through Wednesday night.

The area will see breezy conditions persist from later tonight
through Wednesday night. We will be in the stronger gradient between
strong low pressure well up in Canada, and high pressure situated to
our SE. These winds will bring warmer air in over the area. We
expect that high temperatures will make a run at 70 on Wednesday
afternoon.

A front will approach the area Wednesday night, however the front
looks to be quite moisture starved as it moves through. A few clouds
look to be about the extent of the impacts from the front.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Moderating temperatures and dry weather still look to be in store
for the end of the work week and into Saturday. The upper level
pattern is migrating from a zonal flow to southwest flow from
Thursday into Saturday. The southwest flow is in advance of a trough
moving through the Northern Plains. It is this trough that will
bring rain back to the forecast for late Saturday night and into
Sunday. By Monday, a deepening upper trough is forecast by both the
ECMWF and the GFS over the Great Lakes. We are likely looking at
lake effect rain showers into next Monday. Bottom line is we are dry
from Thursday through Saturday with rain shower chances Sunday and
Monday.

As far as temperatures, we look well above normal Thursday through
Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Friday and
Saturday look to be the warmest days with highs potentially reaching
the middle 70s. Sunday we cool a bit with precipitation and clouds
in the area. Monday will be even cooler still with cold air
advection dropping temperatures behind a cold front that moves
through on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue at all the terminals through Tuesday
evening. It will become breezy late Tuesday morning through
Tuesday afternoon as sw winds increase to 10-20 kts with frequent
gusts to near 25 kts. Sct fair weather cumulus will develop late
Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon with cloud bases at 4-5
kft agl. Skies will clear and winds will diminish Tuesday
evneing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Small Craft Advisory issued earlier still looks solid, and will be
left alone. Gradient will be coming up tonight, and will likely hold
through Thursday. This will build waves up to around 5 to 8 feet or
so with the onshore component expected.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Rivers seem to be cresting lower than expected. Most likely
relatively dry soil, low inland lake levels, and fairly low river
level base states (due to abnormally dry weather the past few
months) have mitigated many of the impacts. Some impacts still
remain in southern Van Buren and western Kalamazoo counties where
rain totals ranged between 6 and 9 inches. Roughly 10 roads were
closed due to flooding in southern Van Buren and some may have been
washed out. The Paw Paw and Black Rivers are running high, perhaps
out of banks in spots, but appear to be cresting today. Dry weather
the rest of this week will allow rivers to subside.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...Duke
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



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