Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 140727
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING A MODERATING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ORD EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS NE TO SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z AND FURTHER
NE INTO ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS BRISK NW FLOW CAA OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER NORTH/CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH AROUND 40 TO NEAR 45 MPH ALONG I-94 AND ESPECIALLY
IN OUR FAR SE FCST AREA TOWARD JXN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IN
ADDITION TO A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. OVERALL THOUGH FELT A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED
TODAY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL NOT SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH.

PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TODAY AS THE CAA
OCCURS. VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT WE DO EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA RANGING FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AND IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COLD WX TUESDAY
NIGHT. FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER
TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY SO AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN COULD MIX WITH
WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT CONDITIONS WERE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR AVIATORS. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY KGRR AND KMKG WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL ESPECIALLY WEST OF KLAN AND
KJXN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VALUES OVER 30 KTS EXPECTED. A SHARP WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COLDER AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. ICING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

HAVE MAINTAINED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ORIGINAL AREA. THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WHICH HAS WORKED OUT WELL.
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN OR THE
NORTHERN THREE ROWS OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA FROM
MUSKEGON...NEWAYGO...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT COUNTIES NORTHWARD.
QUITE A FEW RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST BEING NEAR THE MASON/OCEANA
COUNTY LINE NORTH OF MONTAGUE AT 3.82 INCHES.

ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 600 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI WHERE THEY DO NOT NEED ANY MORE
RAIN. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS THE
NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING. NUMEROUS
RIVER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE WITH POTENTIALLY MORE TO
COME. SEVERAL SITES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MODERATE FLOOD
CATEGORY WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. SOME OF THE RAIN TONIGHT MAY
BE THE HEAVIEST OF THIS ENTIRE EVENT AS PARAMETERS LIKE PWAT (DEEP
MOISTURE) PEAK TONIGHT.

THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL COME TO AN END MIDDAY ON MONDAY MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
     050>052-056>058-064.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE









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