Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 311740
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND
TO THE INTERSTATE 69 AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL SLOWLY
CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S. FROST IS EXPECTED IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH AT THURSDAY WITH SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE PRIMARY ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL
END...AND THE SECTOR OF FROST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS.

OUR SYSTEM IS TRACKING JUST AS THE FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTED IT
WOULD. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE DEFORMATION RAIN BAND COULD
STILL RESULT IN BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OVER INTERSTATE 94 AREA SO SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THERE.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON... FROST IS EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. I ISSUES A FROST ADVISORY TO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT I STILL THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A FAIRLY INACTIVE PERIOD IS DEVELOPING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP DRIER
AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT/S WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BRING MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PLAINS. I/M NOT TOO BULLISH ON PCPN YET AS THE
MOISTURE FEED ISN/T FROM THE GULF AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WRING OUT OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER ONTARIO AND PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. THUS THE BEST CHANCE
PCPN PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY
AFTER THAT.

HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE IMPACT AVIATION CONDITIONS AFFECTING KAZO...KBTL...KLAN AND
KJXN WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE VFR
OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST. WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL..BUT FOR NOW THE RISK
APPEARS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

I DISCONTINUED THE MARINE AND SURF ZONE HEADLINES NORTH OF HOLLAND
AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT BE STRONG OR HIGH ENOUGH TO MEET THE
CRITERIA. EVEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS IT IS MARGINAL BUT I
WILL HOLD ON TO THE HEADLINES THERE NONE THE LESS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

GENERALLY 1-3 INCH RAINFALL HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN THE UPPER
KALAMAZOO AND GRAND RIVER BASINS... AND AN ISOLATED 4-6 IN
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY. AREAL FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT OTHER THAN SOME MINOR LOCAL IMPACTS UNDER THE HEAVIEST
RAIN. RIVERS ARE HANDLING THE RAIN QUITE WELL AT THE MOMENT... AS
THE SOIL HAS HAD TIME TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN. THE RIVERS/CREEKS
NEAR JACKSON... HOLT... AND EAGLE ARE EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST
RISES BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS SOME TIME TO
STABILIZE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ056-
     064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM



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