Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 011902
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. SOME FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL COME DURING ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT. THE
AREA IS BEING SET UP FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING
FOR TEMPS TO BE AROUND THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT...AND MAYBE EVEN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS NEARBY AND A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.

OTHERWISE...WE ARE LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM ON WED NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING
CENTERED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN. WITH THE STRONG JUNE SUN
ANGLE AND SHORT NIGHTS...WE WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATE A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY. WE COULD APPROACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS ON WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WHEN WE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS IS WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DEEPER
MOISTURE WHICH LEADS TO A GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN.  GFS IS RATHER
WET ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW...MAY BE COOLER THAN
FORECASTED ON FRIDAY.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP STORMY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS IN OUR DIRECTION AND TAPS GULF MOISTURE.  THIS PATTERN
COMMONLY SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND WITH INSTABILITY AROUND...THERE SHOULD
BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
ORGANIZED AS THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS...THE TAFS
WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER.
A SMALL RISK EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AS WITH WIND
DECREASES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BIG IMPACTS FOR MARINE INTERESTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE PICKING UP A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOMING ONSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED
BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

MOST OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND HEADWATERS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RISES
AFTER THE RECENT RAINFALL HAVE BEGUN TO STABILIZE OR FALL. A
NUMBER OF DOWNSTREAM RIVERS ARE STILL RISING SLOWLY. NO FLOODING
IS EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...NJJ



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