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000
FXUS63 KGRR 041718
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL STEADILY WARM FROM THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SLOW UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE DEPTH ALTHOUGH SHALLOW
INCREASES FROM ABOUT 3000FT TO AROUND 5000FT THIS EVENING. SOME
LIFT WILL BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CLEARLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS
PIVOTING OUR DIRECTION FROM MN/WI. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE IN THE DECLINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
THE TEENS HAVE MADE IT TO LUDINGTON ON NORTHWEST WINDS. TEENS
SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE IN ALL AREAS BY 700 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST IS
ON THE WAY AND SFC OBS REVEAL THAT THE LEADING EDGE IS MOVING TOWARD
EASTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS IN NW WISCONSIN ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WHILE THE EASTERN PART TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. THE COLDER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE LAKE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COMMENCE NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH. RH PROFILES REVEAL MOISTURE AROUND 3K
FT AND A VERY LOW DGZ. SNOW THAT DEVELOPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY HAVE A SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND WON/T ACCUMULATE MUCH.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S TODAY AND ONLY THE MID TEENS THURSDAY
AS H8 TEMPS NEAR -23C MOVE OVER THE CWA. THIS MAY BE THE LAST BLAST
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR A WHILE THOUGH. BY FRIDAY THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW CWA IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 40.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WITHIN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NRN GRTLKS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE WEAK
SYSTEMS SO WILL NEED TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND THE CORE OF
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH... BUT THE COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WHICH PASS THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA... AND WE SEE MILDER AIR SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD HIT 50 BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IT HAS BEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN THAT MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN I EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...STILL INLAND TAF
SITES SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR
COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING... ALL AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS... MOSTLY MVFR THEN. AFTER THAT COMES THROUGH
INLAND SITES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT MKG. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY SO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND SOME...BUT STILL
DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUDS (TOPS UNDER 5000 FT) LIGHT
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE THOSE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT HAS BEEN ADDED
TO THE SNOWPACK TODAY FROM A COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF
THIS WRITING...LEAVING ONLY LIGHT DZ OR FZDZ.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR
THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRAND RIVER IN JACKSON COUNTY. SWE VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN LANSING AND GRAND RAPIDS. SWE VALUES
OF 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OTTAWA COUNTY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE
MUSKEGON RIVER WITH SWE VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IN BIG RAPIDS
INCREASING TO 3-4 INCHES CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. A BIG WARM UP IN
ADDITION TO A 1-3 INCH RAINFALL EVENT...FOR EXAMPLE...WOULD
CERTAINLY MEAN FLOODING CONCERNS.

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT ICE BREAKUP IS EXPECTED. ICE JAM POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
INDICATES THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK FOR A BREAK-UP ICE JAM FOR THE
GRAND RIVER NEAR ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. A BREAK-UP ICE JAM IS LIKELY
THIS MONTH...BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

HOWEVER...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MARCH 10-16. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S SEEM ATTAINABLE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING BACK IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A
TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO COULD BE IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY
RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY 03/05. GRAND RAPIDS COULD
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOW FOR 03/06. THE RECORDS ARE BELOW:

            GRAND RAPIDS         LANSING         MUSKEGON
03/05 LOW MIN -8 (1948)         -7 (1895)        -5 (1948)
03/05 LOW MAX 16 (1920)         18 (1901)        21 (1972)
03/06 LOW MIN  0 (1920)         -6 (1869)        -4 (1912)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...EBW
CLIMATE...EBW