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000
FXUS63 KGRR 042354
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
654 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH
UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE
FREEZING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

NO REAL IMPACT WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM. AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH SNOW REACHING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS TO
BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WITH
BANDING FEATURES SHOULD MISS US TO THE SOUTH. WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
EXPECT ACCUMS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
PROGRESS OF THE BANDING ON RADAR AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING.

1040 MB SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLD AND DRY AIR INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND MORE LIKELY TOMORROW
NIGHT. WENT CLOSE TO OR BELOW GUIDANCE.

HIGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 30S FRIDAY WITH SOME SUN AND IN
A SW FLOW WAA PATTERN OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT
WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
FAIR WX ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW WAA DEVELOPS
ONCE AGAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF COAST
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOULD STAY
WELL SOUTH TO SE OF OUR FCST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT 00Z. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS RECENTLY...BUT THOSE HAVE DISSIPATED AS
THE SNOW HAS ENDED. ESSENTIALLY FORECASTING VFR WEATHER TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE SNOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM
MINNESOTA. THIS SNOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE STATE AFTER 08Z TO 09Z. IT APPEARS THAT KAZO AND KBTL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS SNOW AS IT
JUST GRAZES THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THESE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z OR SO. THE
REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENT WITH
NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT MVFR CEILINGS
REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT THINKING VFR
IS A BETTER BET. WINDS WILL COME UP WEDNESDAY MIDDAY FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE AND LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. STABLE
RIVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE
IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO