Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 290502
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STORM COULD
BRING SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF ARCTIC FROPA TONIGHT. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
GOES NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE BLO 5 KFT...SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

THE FLOW BEGINS TO GO NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE FURTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW. STILL
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF FLUFF ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM
KALAMAZOO TO BIG RAPIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

IT WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY WHEN MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND
TWENTY DEGREES ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN AROUND -18 C. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE FAIRLY
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE
NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES OR GULF COAST REGION VERY LATE IN
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO
LOWER MI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PCPN TYPE WOULD BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

IT IS NOTED THOUGH THAT 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH FURTHER
SE AND KEEPS ALL PCPN WITH THAT SYSTEM SE OF LWR MI NEXT WEEKEND. SO
THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TRACK/STRENGTH/TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THAT POTENTIAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

OVERALL...EXPECTING LIMITED IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AVIATION THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN ITEM OF NOTE...WITH CEILINGS
VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. CEILINGS AT PRESENT VARY BETWEEN
4200FT AND AROUND 2000FT. THINKING MUCH OF THE NIGHT NOW MAY BE
VFR...AS THE MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
(KLAN/KAZO/KBTL) TRY TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SITES SOUTHEAST OF KGRR FOR FOUR HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE WENT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...
FLURRIES AT WORST. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS MUCH OF
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR THROUGH 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM TODAY. WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TODAY AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
IMPACT THIS WEEK WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES. WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW 20 DEGREES AT TIMES THIS WEEK...ICE WILL BEGIN FORMING ON
RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...EBW





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