Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KGRR 270728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
328 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Memorial Day weekend will see occasional showers and a few
thunderstorms along with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
80s most days.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Weak sfc low tracks from Southern Plains to north of Lake Superior
the next few days with Michigan in moist southerly flow, but not a
strong focus for convection. Lifted indices are are progged to be
in the minus 2 to 5 range this afternoon and evening so we expect
diurnal enhancement for coverage of storms that will persist into
the evening then decrease overnight.

Similar pattern expected for Saturday as set up is the same. A
weak cold front coming through on Sunday afternoon could also
bring an enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Good agreement in the models showing a cold front coming through
Sunday evening.  With this agreement I increased pops for Sunday
evening across central lower as the best dynamics should remain to
the north.

Behind this front the area should be largely dry late Sunday night
through Tuesday as a drier and slightly cooler air mass moves in.
The upper ridge that was so dominate much of this past week over the
far eastern U.S. should become reestablished as we move into the
middle of next week. This will help bring gulf moisture back into
the Great Lakes.  The ECMWF races another cold front east that could
come through Wednesday evening.  But the GFS is much slower and
still has this front to our west through Thursday.  I like the look
of the slower GFS given the building ridge over the eastern
seaboard. We could start seeing more showers and storms as early as
Tuesday night, but it seems more likely to hold off until Thursday.

Expect rather uniform and pleasant temps through the long term with
daytime highs from the mid 70s to lower 80s...and nighttime lows
mainly in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

It will continue to be a warm and muggy next 24 hours. This will
keep the risk of afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the
forecast, but they will remain widely scattered. The murky air
should cause vsbys to occasionally dip down into the MVFR range
this morning through about mid day in light fog/haze, otherwise
VFR should prevail this afternoon and evening.


Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Some areas of fog will be around this morning but tend to lift in
the afternoon as winds and showers increase. Winds and waves
should remain below small craft advisory conditions through the


Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Many areas received rain last night on the order of a quarter inch
all the way up to locally 2 inches across Van Buren County. This has
created some rises on the Black River. Convection through the
weekend will produce mainly localized heavy rainfall so basin
average amounts will be limited...only around a half inch to three
quarters of an inch. Rises will mainly be confined to smaller creeks
and streams though rises on main stem rivers are possible if broader
areas of convection move over larger reaches of the respective


.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


MARINE...Ostuno is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.