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000
FXUS63 KGRR 181725
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AND BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. IT WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR
THE 70 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OF
ANY SIGNIFICANCE WILL NOT COME UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS OVER OUR SE FCST AREA BEFORE ENDING.
OTHERWISE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW LATER
TODAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING FAIR WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

IT WILL BECOME MILD SUNDAY WITH SOME SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WARM
AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH TO
NW OF OUR FCST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR FCST AREA DUE TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER UP THERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL FOR
THIS EVENT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID IN THE
FORECAST.

WEAK SFC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT
WASHES OUT WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING. THE RIDGING
MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW ARRIVING AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY. MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL SFC LOW ARRIVES...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PAST THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A RATHER BENIGN PERIOD FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WITH VFR EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY WELL BEYOND. DIURNAL
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THESE CLOUDS ARE 3500 FT AND ABOVE AT THE
TERMINALS...AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LIFT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT SCT CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE LAKE...AND MORE BKN INLAND.

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH STEADILY THIS EVENING...AND SKIES
SHOULD GO CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SE ON SAT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

RIVER FLOODING HAS BY NO MEANS ENDED ACROSS THE MUSKEGON RIVER.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES...WITH EVART FINALLY FALLING
BELOW MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TONIGHT / EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CROTON DAM CONTINUES TO STEADILY RELEASE LESS FLOW DOWNSTREAM...AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH WATER
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRAVEL AROUND THE RIVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MANY PROPERTIES THAT HAVE
ALREADY FLOODED. NO RISES ARE FORESEEN ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEWAYGO COUNTY...WHICH HAS NOT
RECOVERED FROM HIGH WATER IMPACTS TO THE ROAD SYSTEMS. AS
SUCH...THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COUNTY FOR SOME
WATER COVERED ROADS THAT ARE IMPEDING TRAVEL.

ELSEWHERE...RIVER FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY ON THE PERE
MARQUETTE...WHITE...AND CHIPPEWA RIVERS. THE GRAND RIVER IS
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME BUT NO SERIOUS IMPACTS TO
HOMES OR PROPERTIES ARE OCCURRING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...HOVING