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000
FXUS63 KGRR 141610
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1210 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TODAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUESDAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING A MODERATING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

SENT AN UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST...BUT OVERALL THINGS PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WHICH HAS
NOW PROGRESSED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOWER. GRAND RAPIDS DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES IN AN HOUR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECTING THE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A SLOW
FALL THIS AFTERNOON ON NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WINDS. BY
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TOWARD
LUDINGTON TO THE UPPER 30S AT JACKSON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ORD EARLY THIS MORNING TRACKS NE TO SAGINAW BAY BY 12Z AND FURTHER
NE INTO ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TODAY AS BRISK NW FLOW CAA OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED OVER NORTH/CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH AROUND 40 TO NEAR 45 MPH ALONG I-94 AND ESPECIALLY
IN OUR FAR SE FCST AREA TOWARD JXN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IN
ADDITION TO A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MI SHORELINE. OVERALL THOUGH FELT A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED
TODAY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA WILL NOT SEE GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH.

PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA TODAY AS THE CAA
OCCURS. VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT WE DO EXPECT
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA RANGING FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING AND IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COLD WX TUESDAY
NIGHT. FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER
TEMPS AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY SO AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE. TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN COULD MIX WITH
WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT CONDITIONS WERE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR AVIATORS. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY KGRR AND KMKG WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL ESPECIALLY WEST OF KLAN AND
KJXN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VALUES OVER 30 KTS EXPECTED. A SHARP WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COLDER AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. ICING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES IN LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS WHERE SMALLER
CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE COME OUT OF THERE BANKS. ON TOP OF THAT
THE 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVERS FLOODING. EVART IS
FORECAST TO GO TO NEAR RECORD FLOODING AT 15.0 FT. THE BULK OF THE
FLOODING ISSUES ARE ACROSS THE PERE MARQUETTE...WHITE...
MUSKEGON... PINE AND CHIPPEWA RIVER BASINS. THE ONLY RIVER WARNING
IN THE GRAND RIVER BASIN IS THE ROGUE AT ROCKFORD. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THIS RIVER BASIN SAW HEAVIER RAINS THAT WILL ROUTE
DOWNSTREAM IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE