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000
FXUS63 KGRR 111639
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1139 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND. A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW IS ON THE WAY TO AREAS NEAR TO
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER BURST
OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR THURSDAY FROM HOLLAND
NORTHWARD AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
MORE SNOW SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SNOW EXPECTED LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

DROPPING MUSKEGON...OCEANA AND MASON FROM THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH THE REST REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FEELING IS THE REMAINING COUNTIES WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. WANT TO LET SOME OF THE HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER
BANDING BEFORE ENDING IT. THAT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE IN THE 1-2 PM
TIME FRAME. ROADS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD SHAPE GIVEN THE FINE SNOW
FLAKES LEADING TO FAIRLY GREASY ROADS THIS MORNING. ADVISORY IN
TERMS OF IMPACT SEEMED TO WORK OUT WELL GIVEN LIMITED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS. HIGHWAY 131 SOUTH OF GRAND
RAPIDS PER THE MDOT TRAVEL SPEEDS PAGE AS BEEN IMPACTED ALL
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED WITH A SECTION STILL SHUT
DOWN IT APPEARS. AGAIN...EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FEEL WE WILL BE
ABLE TO END THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EARLY. SOME LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING THROUGH 00Z
WILL BE FROM OTTAWA COUNTY SOUTH DOWN THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

A CONSENSUS OF HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
RUC... HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM ALL INDICATE THAT ANOTHER BURST OF
HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR TO MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96
DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW WITH DEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH H8 TEMPS WAY DOWN
AROUND -16 TO -18 C.

HEAVIEST SNOW FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WILL
FALL MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96 WITH ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
DOWN AROUND HASTINGS... ALLEGAN... SOUTH HAVEN AND KALAMAZOO. A
BUKFIT X-SECTION FOR SOUTH HAVEN SHOWS ABOUT 10 MICROBARS/SEC OF
LIFT LATE THIS MORNING WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 8-9 KFT. OUR
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LOOK EXCELLENT AND WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED.

WNW TO WEST FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE AND H8 TEMPS STILL DOWN AROUND -16 TO -18 C. THEN
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WSW TO SW THURSDAY FAVORING AREAS FROM AROUND
BIV NORTHWARD OVER OUR NW FCST AREA TO RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF
LAKE EFFECT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY WIND DOWN A BIT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS H8 TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY SINCE BY THEN SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME
EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

LIKELY POPS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SATURDAY AS THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE LOW COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MID LEVEL F-GEN COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MESOSCALE
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

THE LOW MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWER MICHIGAN REMAINS IN
THE TROWAL INTO SUNDAY. SO THE SNOW WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT NOT
END AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PROVIDES SFC CONVERGENCE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN RETURN FLOW
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER. SNOW TAPERS OFF
MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION SNOWS BREAK OUT MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

MVFR AND IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
MVFR AND VFR BY 18Z FOR MOST PLACES. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
AROUND AZO WHERE IFR WILL BE PREVAILING MUCH OF THE MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING GOING NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL
FOR ICE JAM FORMATION. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS
CLOSELY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ056-
     057-064>066-071>073.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS