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000
FXUS63 KGRR 100321
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1121 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS TIMING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT TOTAL TOTALS IN
THE MID 40S SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

PRIMARY IMPACT WEATHER REVOLVES AROUND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY APPEARS A BIT
LOWER THAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z GFS
WHICH BRINGS A BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDER
INTO THE CWA BY 18Z SAT AND CONTINUING THRU THE AFTERNOON. THE ECWMF
AND GEM KEEP US MORE DRY THAN WET ON SATURDAY. ONE REASON THE GFS
BRINGS IN PRECIP QUICKER IS DUE TO A TIGHTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
VORT SIGNATURE AT 500 MB. WITH GFS FCST PW VALUES AROUND 2.00" ON
SATURDAY THAT WOULD INDICATE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...NOT YET
SOLD ON THE QUICK GFS SOLUTION AS THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN ALIGNMENT
ON HOLDING OFF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP UNTIL 06Z SUNDAY OR
LATER...WHILE THE GFS EFFECTIVELY DRIES US OUT BY THAT POINT UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON MONDAY.

A PREFERENCE OF THE ECWMF/GEM BLEND IS SUGGESTED IN OUR GRIDS AT
THIS POINT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FEATURED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS NOTED THAT THE GEM ALSO SEEMS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LIKELY EXCESSIVE 60
KT LLJ IT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS IS NOT
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF...SO SHOULD NOT EXPLICITLY FOLLOW THE GEM IN
THIS CASE. NEVERTHELESS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GEM SHOULD INDICATE THE
GENERAL TREND IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIP.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT MORE INTO THE HEART OF OUR CWA...WHICH THE GEM WAS
SUGGESTING WITH YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN. WITH A STRONG ULJ MOVING IN FOR
MID JULY STANDARDS...COULD SEE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WITH THESE STORMS. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO A THREAT
FROM 00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON BUT QPF GRIDS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE. EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH 60-70 KT WINDS AT 500 MB.

DEEP CLOSED 500 MB LOW SWINGS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI BY 12Z TUESDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE 4-5C RANGE AT THAT TIME. WITH A
NW BREEZE ON TUESDAY...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER THAN JULY 15
WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HEIGHT RISES ALREADY ENSUE
BY WEDNESDAY SO A MODERATION INTO THE 70S LOOKS LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 06Z TOMORROW
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES AROUND 5000FT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS WEEKEND AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS. IONIA SHOULD CREST
TONIGHT AND THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS IS NEAR CREST RIGHT NOW.
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SHOULD ALLOW THE OVERALL
SUBSIDING TRENDS TO CONTINUE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD RESULT IN AREAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN HALF OF AN INCH...WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...OSTUNO