Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 180746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
246 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Not much to discuss today and tonight. Showers are heading east out
of the area this morning, marking the beginning of a long stretch of
dry weather. Extensive cloudiness across the northern tier of the
CONUS has also been breaking up a bit overnight, so expecting to see
the sun today although some mid level clouds will likely remain.

A very weak ribbon of vorticity will rotate around the Canadian
upper low across northern Minnesota tonight. There may be a few
showers associated with it, but that should remain north of the
area so kept PoPs near zero through the short term.

Temperatures will return closer to normal with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The longer term remains mainly dry with below normal temperatures
Thu/Fri period. Troughing over the eastern CONUS amplifies
followed by a warming trend into the weekend.

Initially...models continue to trend a short wave southeast
across South Dakota into Iowa later Wednesday/Wednesday night. The
ECMWF remains the strongest with this wave...and continues to clip
the far south with some light QPF. THe Canadian model is the same.
We will mention some small pops along the far south into Wednesday
night. Cooler air follows this system for Thursday and Thursday

Warming ensues Friday and into the weekend with another small
chance of light rain showers over the far eastern CWA into Friday WAA moves through. Upper level ridging builds over the
northern CONUS with the polar jet lifted north along the
International border for the weekend. The models do bring another
short wave into the region around the Sunday time frame. This is
expected to remain north of the area. Following this...model
trends flatten the upper ridge and drive some short wave energy
east from the trough digging back into the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday into midweek next week. Still looks warm enough for just
liquid P-type over the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Showers and storms are gradually on the decrease late this
evening, but they may still may impact KRNH and KEAU before 2AM.
For the remainder of the TAF sites, scattered showers or light
rain can be expected until the early morning hours with a gradual
drying trend around sunrise. There are a few pocket of MVFR
ceilings in MN/WI, but overall conditions are VFR and aside for
some low clouds in WI, we think the cloud cover will remain high-
based through tomorrow at most sites. Fog should also be limited
by the arrival of drier air, the high clouds that are in place, and
the presence of at least some wind through the morning.


Fortunately, it looks like the last of the thunder is making its
way east of the airport at this hour. Scattered light showers will
be possible through most of the night (before sunrise), but the
showers will gradually diminish as we head toward sunrise with VFR
likely through the day tomorrow.

Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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