Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 242351
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
651 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SEVERAL FACTS WILL INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMTS AND WHETHER ANY SLEET
FALLS DURING THE EVENING MAKING FOR MORE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
PREVAILING EAST/SE WIND AS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE
SW OF OUR CWA THEN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER EARLIER AND THE
SFC LOW ACROSS KANSAS HAS KEPT OUR REGION FROM HAVING THE OPTIMAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWEST 10K. ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2K WHICH KEPT TEMPS FOR RISING TOO MUCH
ACROSS WESTERN MN IN CLDS/FOG TODAY.

THE BEST SCENARIO AND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO KEEP HIGHEST POPS
AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMTS IN FAR SC/EC/SE MN AND INTO PORTIONS
OF WC WI. EARLIER TODAY I DID CHG THE ONSET OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON THE DRIER AIR AND PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING THIS
AFTN.

SEVERAL OF THE LOCAL SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE TRENDED FOR THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW IN SC/SE MN AND WC WI...SOUTH OF
RIVER FALLS AND MENOMONIE WISCONSIN. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. CURRENT CONVECTION
IN SOUTHERN IA AND A SFC LOW IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL ALSO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW DRAWS IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE SFC FRONT WILL KEEP A
SMALL AREA OF -RA/-SN IN WC/CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. BUT THIS AREA
WILL BE MORE DISORGANIZED BASED ON THE SEPARATION OF THE TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. IN ADDITION...SLEET
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE STRONGER FORCING
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER
WHERE LOCAL CAMS HAVE SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WHICH IS INDICATIVE
OF SLEET/OR +SN IF CONDS WARRANT. WILL KEEP LOCAL SNOWFALL AMTS
AROUND 2-4 INCHES FROM KAEL TO KEAU. ELSEWHERE...AMTS WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

SPECIFICALLY...AN AREA OF -RA/-SN IN NW IA WILL CHG TO -SN AS IT
MOVES FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MN AND INTO WC WI OVERNIGHT. AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN...ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION PIVOTS TO THE N/NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MN TOWARD MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHC/S OF
-RA/-SN IN CENTRAL MN AND WC WI BASED ON THE CIRCULATION ACROSS
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST AND STARTING OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW...WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE/PIECE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND IS THE FIRST FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WE HAD BEEN CARRYING SOME LOWER POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL DRYING WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO...PULLED MOST OF THE
POPS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AND INSTEAD INSERTED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM MILLE LACS LAKE THROUGH
LADYSMITH.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES SO WE WILL
BE TO THE WEST OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE -10C TO -18C RANGE.  WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SETUP AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST OF US.  A FAIRLY STRONG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
FROM MANITOBA THROUGH ONTARIO...WITH A TRAILING COOL FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW.  THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOUNT
FOR LIFT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WONT DROP MUCH
AT ALL HOWEVER AS THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND IT.
SIGNS STILL POINT TO A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
WESTERN RIDGE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIP IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MN...AND WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THIS
EVENING. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CIGS WILL ALSO DROP ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...EVEN
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SATURATED. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY...THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 20G30KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

KMSP...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
TERMINAL AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING...AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND 02Z. THE SNOW SHOULD END AROUND 06Z...BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE...AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
12-14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER IN THE
MORNING...AND LIKELY RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
START OUT FROM THE SE AROUND 8-10 KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
10Z...AND SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY 15Z WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FROM THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WITH WINDS FROM 260-280 DEGREES
AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GUSTING
TO NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS EARLY.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NNW 15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ082>085-
     091>093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ024>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...ADL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.