Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 161146
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD...AND RESULT IN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST OVER PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED
READINGS ON MONDAY.

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOG SITUATION THAN
FROST...WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 DEGREES AND PROGGED
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 1 DEGREE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FEW CHGS WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS WED NIGHT/THU WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE MEAN PATTERN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON THE NOSE OF THIS UPPER
RIDGE...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. BUT CHCS REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LLJ/THERMAL RIDGE. LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL SEE BIG CHGS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A POSITIVE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
FALLS/SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE QPF FIELDS...BUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCES ARISE SATURDAY
AFTN/EVENING AS THE LATEST EC HAS A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING/MOVING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO
THE GFS/GEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME
SIMILARITIES TO THE DEEPER SOLUTION OF THE EC. BASICALLY THIS
MEANS THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MEAN UPPER LOW MOVES
SE OF OUR REGION.

THIS DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MAY HOLD OFF THE WARM UP FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS
FOR THE WEEK OF 22ND. HOWEVER...IT MAY BE DELAYED A DAY OR SO IF
THE STRONGER EC IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD BRING FOG TO
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT
KEAU...AND KEPT OTHER SITES VFR FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 7 AND 10KTS FOR THE DAY...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

KMSP...NO CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS VRB 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SE AT 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR LIKELY. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR WITH -SHRA. WINDS S-SW
10-20KTS G 25KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ016.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS







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