Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241815
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1215 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Updated to include 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main short term concern remains headlines and
additional snow today.

Latest radar and satellite trends indicate the fine snow fall
gradient will be across the southeast metro today. Tried to fine
tune amounts to the northwest some from earlier adjustment. This
lead to canceling Redwood, Sibley, and Scott from the advisory
with less than 2 inches expected today. Otherwise, let the
remaining headlines go, with fine tuning the blizzard expiration
to 06z over south central MN and left the winter storm warning go
through 12z Sat into west central Wisconsin. Expect another surge
of snow to lift over the Southeast third of the cwa, with an
additional 6 inches possible east of a Albert Lea...Menomonie
line. Lesser totals to the west, with the northwest metro
remaining dry. Strong north winds will develop as the surface low
tracks toward Chicago this morning. Some guts to 40 mph possible
over south central Minnesota causing low visibility/blizzard
conditions with the falling snow, at least through the morning.
MNDOT continues to mention travel not advised over the southern 2
tier of counties in south central MN.

Improving conditions expected through 06z Saturday over MN with
slowly diminishing winds. The warning over west central Wisconsin
will likely need to be cancelled early, as the system pulls east
into the southern Great Lakes region overnight. Lows tonight will
drop off through the teens at least and could be colder over the
fresh snow covered areas if winds and clouds decrease quicker than
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

An strong jet across the CONUS will yield an active long term
period with temperatures running near to a little above normal.
Chances for precip will come Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday with
the system Tuesday looking to have the greatest potential for more
significant precip amounts.

We`ll start the long term with zonal flow in the wake of the
system passing to our south today. Within this zonal flow, we`ll
see a shortwave/clipper worker across central MN and northern WI.
Starting to see better model agreement on some light snow
accompanying this shortwave across northern sections of the MPX
area and now have some chance pops Saturday night/Sunday morning
north of I-94. This wave will be moving through, so any precip
amounts we see will be fairly minor with maybe a half inch of snow
possible.

Behind this wave, we see heights build again Sunday into Monday.
Where snow does not fall today, we will likely see high poke back
up into the low 40s ahead of a weak cold front that will move
through Monday night.

For Tuesday, models continue to show a high degree of variability
with this system, though the GFS is starting to trend toward the
ECMWF. Because of that, we have some high chance and even likely
pops now for Tuesday. At the moment, we are warm enough in the
grids to make this a mainly liquid event. However, the ECMWF did
track back southeast with this system with the 00z run, bringing
the potential for accumulating snow to the area. Given the little
run to run consistency, stuck with our warmer/rainier forecast,
but we will have to watch trends closely with this system.

Behind the Tuesday wave, we look to get into more of a northwest
flow, and within this flow, both the GFS/ECMWF show a clipper
working across the upper MS Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. its
not until we get on the backside of the clipper do we look to have
a shot at temperatures dipping below normal. Until then, we will
continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal. Currently, our average
temperature for the month of February is only a half degree off
the pace for making this the warmest February on record at the
Twin Cities. However, we will be cool enough to end the month to
keep us from getting there, but we should be able to maintain our
spot in the top 10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

All MN TAF sites are now free from precipitation while the WI TAF
sites will still receive additional -SN through this evening. MVFR
conditions will be prevalent across the region, with some IFR
visibilities possible in some heavier bands of -SN at the WI TAF
sites. The -SN will diminish overnight and all sites will see an
improvement to VFR mid-level ceilings. Clouds will then scatter
out tomorrow with only upper level CS or CC clouds expected. N
winds will slowly back to NW through tomorrow while speeds
diminish to around 10 knots by tomorrow.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings will linger to around the start of the
afternoon/evening push and could last a little longer than
advertised. VFR conditions are then expected by mid-evening and
will continue through tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ016-024>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ015-
     023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ063-
     070.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ074>078-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC



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