Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261808 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
RAIN TODAY PER RADAR TRENDS AND VIRTUALLY ALL HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS SRN MN AND WRN WI
WHERE 1/4-3/4 INCH IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUE TO A TROPICAL/HIGHLY
EFFICIENT AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THIS POTENT WAVE LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...DEFORMATION AREAS MAY SEE INTENSE RAIN
RATES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH. MAINTAINED A TIGHT
POP GRADIENT FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND CAMBRIDGE
WHERE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADIER
RAIN WEST OF THERE. ALSO REDUCED HIGHS TODAY WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS LIKELY IN THE DRIER YET
CLOUDY AREAS NEAREST THE POP GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRES CENTERS...ONE NEAR KDLH AND ANOTHER NEAR KOMA...LINKED BY A
TRAILING CDFNT FROM THE FORMER TO A LEADING WMFNT FROM THE LATTER.
MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
FL WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ENTERING THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY REMAINS. A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROF OVER
ERN SD AND THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE EWD OVER SRN MN DURG THE DAY
TDA. IN CONCERT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE SFC FRONT WILL ALSO
SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACRS THE AREA WHILE THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KOMA
SHIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE UPR LOW COMBINED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXPANSION OF
SHWRS /AND ISOLD TSTMS/ FROM AROUND THE MN/IA BORDER NEWD INTO WRN
WI...POSSIBLY GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO.
BEST SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
RICE LAKE-COTTAGE GROVE- FAIRMONT...AND HRRR/HOPWRF/SREF INDICATES
ENOUGH CAPE TO POTENTIALLY SEE A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE E...SO WILL THE PRECIP
SHIELD...SO WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E THIS EVE
INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF TO
THE E COME DAYBREAK WED MRNG.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MILD AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS MRNG BUT MODEST CAA WITH THE ADVANCE
OF THE FNT WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE LWR 70S TDA. ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING TNGT ALONG WITH WINDS BACKING TO WLY WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SKIES WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK
AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES IN. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT WIDESPREAD MID 80S ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THURSDAY WHICH MEANS WE`LL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS PUSHING IN FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. WORKED THOSE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP
CHANCES GO AWAY ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WE`LL BE
IN A POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A DECENT COOL DOWN EXPECTED
AS A SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY MORNING LOWS...SO
ITS EITHER 10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. 850MB
TEMPS MAY COOL TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WITH POTENTIALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE
30S BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IN
SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY...SO STUCK WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WE GET BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A STRIP OF IFR CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. VFR
CONDITIONS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WI WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
STC AND RWF WITH VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AXN. WIDESPREAD RAIN
HAS ENGULFED MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH AXN THE ONLY TAF LOCATION
NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY. STC WILL REMAIN ON THE THE BACK EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHIELD AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY. LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO A
DECENT PROBABILITY THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT.

KMSP...IFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS EVENING
AND VFR FOR OVERNIGHT AND BEYOND.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC AFTN -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS
BECOMING N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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