Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 140835
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
235 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure prevailing
over much of the lower 48 states, save for low pressure center
over TX and a departing low from New England into the Canadian
maritimes. A low pressure center is fixated just south of Hudson
Bay with a cold front extending westward into the Canadian
Rockies. Aloft, northwest flow continues over the north-central
states around a large low pressure center rotating over central
Canada while a sharp ridge axis linger in the western CONUS. The
upper level low is progged to shift SSE into the Great Lakes by
this evening, sharpening the flow between it and the western
ridge. This will also bring a shortwave axis around the western
fringes of the low through MN/WI later today. In conjunction with
these upper level features, the aforementioned cold front will be
nudged southwest through the rest, akin to a "backdoor" cold
front. This will result in mainly an increase in cloud cover due
to the overall lack of low-level moisture, although a few isolated
rain/snow showers are possible in interior portions of western WI.
The trough and front will swing through by late this evening and
allow high pressure to regain control, thus allowing for clearing
skies overnight through tomorrow morning. More seasonable, but
still above normal, temperatures are expected with the cold
frontal passage. Highs will it the mid 30s to lower 40s today
followed by lows dropping into the teens tonight. The low
temperatures tonight will be the coldest temperatures we will then
experience for some time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Record temperatures are likely late this week through early next
week.

The main features of the long term is the large ridge that builds in
late this week through this weekend, and the strong low pressure
system that develops to our west at the end of the weekend, likely
brining rain to our area early next week.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...the interface between the large
upper trough to the east and ridge to the west will bisect our area
with warmest temps to the west and coolest to the east.  In fact,
western MN will likely see highs in the low 40s, while western WI
only reaches the upper 20s. Skies should begin clearing from west to
east as the ridge and anticyclonic dry flow push in.

Thursday-Saturday...a very warm period is still in store for our
area.  Record highs will certainly be in jeopardy across the Upper
Midwest. The upper ridge slowly progresses eastward with the thermal
ridge peaking on Friday across southern MN and west central WI. This
along with full sunshine will make for a very warm day as
temperatures soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area.
Winds will turn northwesterly by Saturday as a front moves through,
but still expect very warm temps in the lower to mid 50s.

Sunday-Monday...This period becomes more active and remains very
warm.  The key feature will be a developing low pressure system that
will will reach the Dakotas by Monday and advance northeast toward
Hudson Bay from there.  We`ll be in a solid warm/moist southerly
flow regime ahead of this system so we still expect rapidly rising
dew points Sunday night with overnight lows in the 40s likely
breaking records.  Rain is likely Monday along and ahead of the cold
front associated with the surface low that will move toward Hudson
Bay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

VFR tonight and through the morning. Winds increase tomorrow
afternoon with the potential for MVFR ceilings with a broken
stratus deck at the TAF sites in central MN/WI.

KMSP...

There could be a low cloud deck in the area tomorrow afternoon,
but it could also remain north and east of the airport. We decided
to leave MVFR out of the TAF for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF



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