Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 280345
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING AND
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE TAPER DIURNALLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AS
WELL. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FIRST AND SHOWERS WERE MORE
NUMEROUS. WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

COUPLE OF ISSUES INTO MONDAY.  SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS WELL. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP QPF INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT BUILDS CAPE OVER 800 J/KG AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF DOESNT DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY OR THE
WEAK WAVE AROUND THE LOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT MODEL RUN AND
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OR INTENSIFIES. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC HIGH PRES AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT THEMES FOR
THE WX OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY THRU THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS...THE CENTRAL CONUS...ESP IN THE NORTH...WILL BE
SUBJECT TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ANY CHANCES...MAINLY
TUE THEN THU INTO FRI...WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR ERN MN INTO
WRN WI AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE TROUGH RIDE SEWD WITHIN THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY LACKING SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES COME WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE UPR
50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A NARROW MEANDERING NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS
JUST EAST OF KRWF. THEY ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SSW (15KTS) AND WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KRWF AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR ON THE CEILING IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAINLY OVC VFR CLOUDINESS (050) STRETCHES FROM KHCO
TO KMZH. IT IS MOVING SSW AT 18KTS WITH CLEARING (SCT-BKN)
REACHING INTO KAXN...KSTC AND KMSP BY 09Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
SCT VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY (040-050) WITH TEMPORARY
BKN CONDITIONS WITH THE CU RULE QUITE NEGATIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NW AND NE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MORE OF A NW WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR THE DAY AHEAD.

KMSP...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDINESS (040-050) OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NE
WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BACKING TO THE
NW BY DAYBREAK AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH





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