Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 132208

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
408 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Another pleasant day out there, relatively speaking for February,
with temperatures in the 40s to lower 50. Winds are veering
westerly along a diffuse cold front now heading into central
Minnesota. This front will continue progressing southeast tonight.
Gusty northwest winds with cold air advection are expected
Tuesday. I believe models are overdoing the RH in the boundary
layer due to snow cover and the mixing should be strong enough to
tap into some of the very dry air aloft, particularly across
southwest Minnesota. This should allow for scattered clouds at
best south of the Minnesota river. Cyclonic, slightly more moist
flow further east should allow for more cloud development and
maybe even a snow shower or two toward central Wisconsin. Lows
tonight will remain mild due to the wind, but temps will rise only
about 10 degrees Tuesday with the CAA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017


Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be cool, actually near
normal, but the pattern changes dramatically late week into early
next week. Deep troughs on the coasts will build a ridge across
the central U.S. that won`t move much for several days. Temps will
increase Thursday and peak Friday with thermal ridging overhead
ahead of a weak cold front associated with a clipper well to the
north. Full sun is expected Friday, and with 925 mb temps of
around +10C on the GFS, many locations across southern MN could
easily reach the lower 60s. The ECMWF is even warmer, around +14C
by late afternoon. That would be nearing 70, just incredible for
mid February.

Some slight cooling is expected Saturday, but temperatures rebound
again beginning Sunday as a large storm system begins developing
in the Plains. This will reinvigorate the southerly flow for early
next week and bring deeper moisture northward. Extensive cloudiness
with showers and some thunderstorms should keep highs from getting
out of control, but Monday morning lows will likely exceed records.
In fact, the record warm minimum temperature on that date at MSP
is 35. We could even exceed the highest minimum temperature for
February by several degrees at MSP, which is only 44.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Occasional high clouds for the next 18 hours or so and VFR
conditions. A cold front will push through tonight and cold air
advection could bring lower clouds in for late Tuesday morning.
Models are not latching onto the lack of a significant snow cover
well at all, so believe the cloud bases are too low on the
guidance. Left cigs VFR for now, although will watch for trends

KMSP...VFR expected for the period, but as discussed above there
is some potential for lower cigs Tuesday.

WED...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S at 5 kts.




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