Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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079
FXUS63 KMPX 070546
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING THIS EVENING
PLAYED A LARGE ROLE IN DETERMINING WHICH COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS VERSUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IS AMPLE FOLLOWING THE WINTER STORM EARLIER
THIS WEEK. IN FACT...MANY AREAS HAVE GREATER THAN 8 INCHES. THESE
AREAS HAVE ALSO REMAINED COOLER TODAY AND VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE SNOW IS ABLE TO BLOW AROUND...
ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

CONTRAST THAT WITH WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH LARGELY MISSED
OUT ON THE LAST WINTER STORM...THEY HAVE HAD ON AND OFF RAIN ALL
EVENING...AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THIS
EVENING. SNOW DEPTH THERE IS MORE VARIABLE...RANGING FROM ZERO IN
PLACES TO 6 OR 7 INCHES IN OTHERS. IT IS UNLIKELY DESPITE 50 OR 55
MPH WIND GUSTS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. SEVERAL CALLS AROUND THE AREA ALSO
POINTED OUT THE SNOW IS DENSE AND WET. CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING THERE. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW STILL
NECESSITATED SOME TYPE OF WARNING. IF MORE SNOW FALLS ALLOWING
VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SEVERAL
PLACES...THEN WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THOSE LOCATIONS TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A STRONG SHORT WAVE WAS EVIDENT ACROSS MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTN AS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE...BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS ND/SD...AND
MOVED AS FAR EAST AS WC MN. REGIONAL OBS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WITH THE RADAR ECHOES. SOME OF THE OBS HAD EVEN
RECORDED A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT OBS ARE REPORTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND
THE LATEST RAP HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...HAVE UPDATED WX GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LIKELY POPS IN
WC MN/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME. AS THE
LIGHT RAIN MOVES EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...SFC
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ICY CONDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AS THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...TEMPS
ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH TO HAD A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW.

DUE TO A PERSISTENT SW/WEST FLOW COMING FROM THE DAKOTAS WHERE
TODAYS TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUNDAY/S WX IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN/SW/SC MN FOR A TRUE BLIZZARD TO FORM. TODAYS
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH 40S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE
CREATED A DENSER SNOWPACK /LESS LIKELY TO BLOW AROUND/. SOME AREAS
IN WC MN HAVE EVEN LOST MOST OF THEIR SNOWPACK...SO ANY BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO BE FROM NEW SNOW SUNDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...DUE TO
PROBLEMS RELATED TO GENERATING BLOWING SNOW...THE BLIZZARD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE. FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTN THRU MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE BY THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONGER TERM CONCERN REMAINS BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

WE STILL ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS INTO MONDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. BUFKIT PROFILES OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH SHOWING MAX GUST
POTENTIALS OF 45-50 KTS. LARGE DGZ ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
EXPECTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
POTENTIAL OF 2-3 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY
CWA. THE MAIN LIMITING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL REMAINS
WARMER AIR TODAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING SOME SETTLING TO THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK...HOW WIDESPREAD THE NEW SNOW WILL BE AND ONLY
LIMITED SNOW FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL MN FROM THE FEB 2-3 EVENT.
THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL INDICATES IF SNOW IS REALIZED...WE WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE GROUND BLIZZARD ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH
AREA. ALSO...THE LATEST CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE STILL WAS INDICATING
A GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2-3 HR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BEING REALIZE AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE CHANCE OF A WEAK CLIPPER/WAA
ADVECTION PATTERN MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
NOW. THE OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. THERE ARE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY UNTIL THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
BEGIN LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY THROUGH THAT
TIME AND INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KT EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN.

KMSP...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 22Z WHEN THE SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHC MVFR/IFR/-SN. WINDY. BLSN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ041-047-048-054>058-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ042>045-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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