Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160010
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.Updated for 00Z Aviation discussion...
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

It may be mild here today in the 30s, but this pales in
comparison to areas south of a quasi stationary front draped
across Kansas, Missouri, into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures south
of there are in the 60s and 70s, with a few readings even in the
lower 80s in the St. Louis area! Unfortunately for us we`re still
far removed from anything close to that, but it is still better
than what we have been subject to recently, at least as of this
writing.

Colder air is indeed reaching western MN on gusty northwest winds.
Readings have dropped into the teens there, which will spread east
slowly this evening. The stratus overhead is thin, about 700 ft
thick per a PIREP from earlier today. It won`t take too much to
break up the stratus this evening as drier air arrives. This
process is occurring already this afternoon across northeastern
and portions of central MN. Clear skies will prevail Friday.

It appears more and more likely the snow over South Dakota this
afternoon will dry up and/or sink south before reaching our CWA.
Therefore, confined any mentionable PoPs south of the MN river
through about mid evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

High pressure over the Ohio Valley Friday night will continue a
return flow over the region. While deep moisture will be lacking,
there could be enough to generate some light snow along a cold
front late Friday night and Saturday morning from eastern
Minnesota into WI. Accumulations of an inch or are possible over
WI, but kept PoPs in the 30-40 percent range for now as there are
timing differences amongst the models. The NAM is the most
aggressive with amounts.

Attention then turns to the multi round system early next week.
There appears to be three rounds of light snow. The first round
late Saturday night and Sunday will feature a low pressure center
tracking eastward across southern MN into central WI. A band of
snow will develop along and north of a surface warm front, and
drop 2 to 4 inches north of a line from Morris to St. Cloud and
Ladysmith. This line may shift slightly, but the NAM and ECMWF
are dry south of it and it has been trending north. Highs Sunday
south of the boundary could reach the 40s.

The digging trough down the west coast this weekend will deamplify
as it lifts northeast across the northern Plains early week. This
is not a good sign for a deep cyclone. However, a surface front
with a 40-50 degree temperature difference across 200 miles or
less will set up across the southern Plains to southern Great
Lakes. High amounts of moisture will accompany the warm sector,
but the conveyor belts will steer it mostly east of the cold
sector. Two ill-defined upper waves will generate a couple
periods of light snow - one late Sunday night and Monday, and the
second late Monday night into early Tuesday before high pressure
arrives for midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at  558 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Primarily VFR conditions, but KRWF and KMKT could see MVFR/IFR
snow for the first couple of hours this evening. Skies will
eventually clear overnight, and northwest winds will decrease and
take on a more southwesterly direction on Friday.

KMSP...
A few light snow showers are possible this evening, but confidence
is too low to include mention in the TAFS. Should see VFR
conditions throughout the TAF period, with northwest winds
becoming southwest Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Chc -SN/MVFR in mrng. Winds SW bcmg NW 15G25 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Winds SE 10 kts becoming NE.
Mon...IFR/-SN Likely. Winds NE 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB



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