Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 180354
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WEATHER ACROSS MN/WI
DOESN`T BECOME MORE ACTIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS. IN THE MEANTIME...QUIET AND
COOL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM ND...ACROSS CENTRAL MN...AND
INTO NORTHERN WI. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTHERN MN WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MUCH
COOLER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE N-NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME OF
THE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED NORTH OF HERE TODAY. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE...HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY - PERHAPS
ADDING SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. TOMORROW SHOULDN`T BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM TODAY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN CONUS MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING PREVALENT ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...THOSE WAVES ARE RELATIVELY DIFFICULT TO TIME VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED A TAD WITH RESPECT TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST WAVE...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POTENTIALLY NOT REACHING CENTRAL MN UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
DID INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR WESTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT IT
WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WHEN ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD WI. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH
80S CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUN /ESPECIALLY
WEST CENTRAL MN/. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO HAVE THE ADEQUATE ACCOMPANYING FORCING AND SHEAR TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...WHETHER ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT /GIVEN THE MORNING CONVECTION/...AND GIVEN THE
CAPPING INVERSION ILLUSTRATED ON THE MODELS...DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE HINDERED.

ON SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THE MOST PROBABLE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH/EAST OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER.

BY SUNDAY...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AS RIDGING WORKS INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDING PREVAILS. THERE DOES LOOK TO
BE A BREAKING DOWN OF THE RIDGE AS A WESTERN CONUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MARCHES EASTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AT
THIS POINT...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

IFR CEILINGS ARE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
EVENING WITH KSTC AND KAXN BEING IMPACTED BEFORE THE 06Z TAFS.
BOTH OF THESE SITES MAY NOT STAY IFR ALL NIGHT LONG DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SE. THIS WILL LIFT THE LOW CEILINGS TO
THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. KEAU AND KRNH WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER BR/FG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z. THESE SITES ARE MORE PRONE TO A LONGER DURATION OF MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL CEILINGS
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE NIGHT AND ADVECT NORTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. KMSP IS ON THE EDGE AND SHOULD ONLY SEE SCT LOW
MVFR CLOUDS AND 5-6SM BR. KRWF IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LOW
MVFR CEILING LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING SE LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN THE AFTERNOON.

KMSP...FIRST SURGE OF LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. HOWEVER...LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF BKN008-010 COMING AT THE AIRPORT FROM
THE SE. THE BULK OF THESE LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
THE AIRFIELD IN CENTRAL WI.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA BEFORE 9 PM. MORE NUMEROUS AFT 9 PM WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS S-SW 15-25 KT.
SAT...VFR. MORNING -SHRA POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...LRS
AVIATION...RAH








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