Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 072105
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ONE PESKY FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE A BIT OF SMOKE FILTERING IN AGAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL AND
PRIMARILY RESULT IN A MILKY SKY AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID 70S
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...WITH CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVERALL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHC/S OVER
THE WEEKEND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES.

ABNORMALLY LOW DEW PTS INITIALLY WILL RISE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES BECOMING AN ISSUE. BEST CHC/S OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE CUTOFF BETWEEN
TWO WX SYSTEM THAT WILL KEPT MPX CWA DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS WC/NW MN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS /EC/GEM/GFS/ BECOME APPARENT LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
NE ACROSS MPX CWA BY SATURDAY...WHILE THE EC KEEPS THIS FRONT IN FAR
SW MN. GEM IS IN BETWEEN KEEPING SATURDAY WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE
FRONT NEARBY. ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER AND NEARLY
CAPS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHERE AS THE EC IS UNCAPPED AND
ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THEREFORE...THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TEMPS AND DEW PTS. KEEPING IN MIND OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS...TEMPS BY SUNDAY MAY SOAR INTO THE 90S WITH DEW PTS
NEAR 70 OR HIGHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...ESPECIALLY IN SW/WC/SC MN. CURRENT BLEND
OF SEVERAL MODELS SFC TEMPS KEEP THESE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THOSE
WORKING/PLAYING OUTSIDE.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW WHICH IS INITIALLY WEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL
BECOME MORE SW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...AND RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND...REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEKS WX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SW
CONUS MOVES/DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN CU FIELD WILL YIELD SCT-BKN SKIES THROUGH 23Z...AFTER WHICH
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL SEE A RE-INTRODUCTION OF CU
AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. WILL ALSO SEE A BIT OF SMOKE RETURNING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT IT TO IMPACT
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY.

KMSP...
THE SCT DECK AT 4500 FT WILL BE BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH 23Z...THEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY. WINDS GUST TO
BETWEEN 17 AND 19 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVE. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC -TSRA. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.