Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 170359
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

IT WAS A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE TWIN CITIES DID CRACK THE
70 DEGREE BARRIER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT OUT OF AN
OCTOBER WITHOUT A 70 DEGREE READING. SINCE 1872...THERE HAVE ONLY
BEEN FIVE OCTOBERS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE DID NOT REACH 70.

OUR WARMTH TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLER AND BLUSTERY FRIDAY.
THE CULPRIT IS A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THAT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. NAM PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE MN RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FOR EASTERN AREAS.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVERING ND AND NORTHERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY IN STORE
FOR FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WERE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE
TWIN CITIES ON NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN TOMORROW IS FROM RICE LAKE TO EAU CLAIRE ON EASTWARD WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

A DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BUT DRY WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING A POTENT SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
MICHIGAN. 500MB HEIGHT RISES OFF THE NAM 16.12 OF NEARLY 10M/HR
WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN PROMOTING LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING. THIS IS EVIDENT IN
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KEAU AND KRCX. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE BEST PVA IS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL WI...SO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AREA ACROSS THE MPX CWA WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER...BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT WOULD BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING AND OMEGA.

HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS SECOND WAVE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THE SEASONABLY
COOL AIRMASS AND LACK OF MECHANICAL MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WHICH IS BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR
MID OCTOBER.

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON SUNDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO
ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AS A CDFNT CONTINUES TO PUSH THRU WRN WI DURG THE EARLY MRNG
HRS...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY...GRADUALLY INCRG IN SPEED. SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY WELL
REACH 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AND EXCEEDING 30 KT...PARTICULARLY
LATE FRI MRNG THRU FRI AFTN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WRN
MN TAF SITES...BUT STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES. OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL
SLIDE SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CDFNT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF A TIGHTLY WOUND UPR LVL LOW DROPPING SE THROUGH
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS...DROPPING AS LOW AS 2 KFT BY AROUND
DAYBREAK...WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IF NOT THRU
00Z TMRW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DURATION OF THE MVFR CIGS IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT AND HAVE INDICATED A RISE TO VFR CIGS BY LATE TMRW
AFTN. HOWEVER...CONDS MAY WELL DEVELOP SUCH THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN
IN PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY TMRW. AS FOR PRECIP DURG THE DAY
TMRW...BEST CHCS ARE AT KEAU AND CONSISTENCY IN SHORT-TERM MODELS
FORCES ITS INCLUSION FROM LATE MRNG INTO MID-AFTN. NO VSBY
REDUCTION XPCTD. ALL OTHER TAF SITES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS PRECIP
WILL BE TOO FAR N AND E.

KMSP...NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOR PRECIP EXPECTED. STRONG WLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED THRU MIDDAY
TMRW BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TMRW EVE. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY EARLIER THAN THE 10Z
TIME CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. AM NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO DROP LOWER
THAN 1700...BUT THAT THRESHOLD WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC





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