Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KMPX 110511 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1211 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

MOCLR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRES MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE
E OF THE AREA BY TNGT...BEING FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A WEAK SFC TROF
OF LOW PRES IN ADVANCE OF A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRES OVER WRN
CANADA. THIS TROF WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG WHILE MOISTURE FEEDS INTO IT FROM THE NW. THERE WILL STILL BE
A FAIRLY DEEP LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER /AT LEAST 5 KFT AND POTENTIALLY
UP TO 10 KFT...WITH THE DEEPER DRY AIR OVER SRN MN AND FILLING IN
GOING N/. THIS DRY LAYER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE GROUND...LET ALONG MEASURING...OVERNIGHT BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE. SO...HAVE MAINTAINED 20/30 POPS ACRS THE
ENTIRE CWFA OVERNIGHT AND KEPT THE GRIDS AS SHOWING THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AS MOVING W TO E. ANY POTENTIAL FOR SHWRS ENDS BY LATE
MRNG AND WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY TMRW AFTN.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN MILD WITH LOW LEVEL W TO SW FLOW
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. THE COLDER AIR...ALONG WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA. THEREFORE...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
RECORDED OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S. HIGHS FRI WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS RECORDED
TDA...DUE TO A MORE SLY COMPONENT IN THE SFC WINDS RATHER THAN THE
NW COMPONENT TDA. MAX TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY RANGE 60-70
DEGREES...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LWR 70S IN SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE COOL WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
CHC/S OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IF ALL THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER WED/THU. HOWEVER...THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE AND FAST
MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STARTS TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NOSE OF JET HAS
INDICATIONS OF FOCUSING IN EC MN/WC WI AFT 9Z SATURDAY. THIS LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IF WE GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE FAST
NATURE OF THE JET INTERACTION WILL LEAVE QUESTIONS ACROSS MPX CWA.
THE BEST CHC OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AMTS ABV ONE INCH WILL OCCUR
FROM SC MN TO WC WI SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...ONLY SCATTERED
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND MAINLY BEFORE NOON. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHUT OFF THE MAIN
MOISTURE FEED TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS OF A
SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA/SOUTHERN WI...BUT HOW FAR NW THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE GETS INTO
MN REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. CONFIDENCE IN A SHARP CUT OFF FROM NO
RAINFALL TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE HIGH ACROSS SC/SE MN AND
INTO WC/CENTRAL WI. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AMT OF
RAINFALL AS THIS AREA WILL BE PRONE TO RIVER FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEVELOPS. A HYDRO SECTION HAS BEEN ADDED TO THIS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS BELOW.

PAST SUNDAY...THE COOL WX CONDS WILL DEVELOP THRU MIDWEEK BEFORE
SOME MODIFICATION DEVELOPS BY THU/FRI. HOWEVER...AS THE
MODIFICATIONS DEVELOP...THERE IS A CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS
ALL THE RIGHT ELEMENTS ARE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR IMPACT MUCH GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

KMSP...VFR. DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TONIGHT...NO MAJOR
CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR CIGS WITH SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS
BCMG N 5-10 KT.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISING RIVER LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE
MPX AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH MINOR QPF OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...MOST RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FS WITH ONLY
A COUPLE OVER ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER...IF QPF POTENTIAL OF 1.5
INCHES ARRIVES OVER THE CHIPPEWA WI BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WE
COULD SEE THE CHIPPEWA AT EAU CLAIRE AND DURAND REACH FLOOD STAGE
BY MONDAY. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THAT THREAT...WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WATCH TOMORROW IF WE GAIN SUFFICIENT
CONFIDENCE IN QPF.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
HYDROLOGY...CCS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.