Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261032
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
532 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE A BIT
FURTHER EAST TODAY.  THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE FAR EASTERN CWA IS NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY FOG...MAINLY IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY AS WELL. OTHER THAN THAT...SOME SMOKE IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT APPEARS TO BE A THIN LAYER AND
RATHER HIGH.  STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S.

THE WEATHER MAKER TO COME BEYOND THIS PERIOD IS LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA REGION THIS MORNING.  IT WILL MOVE OVER
WYOMING/WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
FAR WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AGAIN FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT A
HUGE TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

COULD BE A WET FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE SHORTWAVE /OF MONSOON ORIGIN/ OVER NEW
MEXICO CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

THE AREA THAT RECEIVES THE BIG RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
ASSOCIATED LOW TRACKS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A STICKING
POINT...WITH THE 26.00Z ECMWF MODEL RUN BEING THE ONLY MODEL
LEFT TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 ON FRIDAY. HAVE THEREFORE BEGUN TO TRIM THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE ALSO RESTRICTED THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SOUTHERN MN...WHERE IT STILL LOOKS AS IF
A GOOD 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL. GIVEN PWATS SOAR TO OVER 1.75
INCHES THIS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CATEGORICAL
POPS ALSO SEEM WARRANTED AS A LLJ OF 35-40KTS NOSES INTO SOUTHERN
MN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...SO THE
SEVERE THREAT AND EVEN THE THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEAR LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BUILD AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION ENSUES WITH TROUGING IN THE PAC NW
AND RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE READINGS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY THE 1ST OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S APPEAR COMMON...WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IT LOOKS TO BE RATHER WASHED OUT BY
THE TIME IT GETS HERE...SO HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20-30
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SOME LIFR IN CIGS/FOG ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL WI AND THE RIVER
VALLEYS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MENTION AT KRNH/KEAU BUT SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 14Z. VFR CONDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH SOME
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING UP AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. THIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS AL OF MN PORTION OF THE AREAS INTO
TONIGHT. MAY HAVE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL WI
KRNH/KEAU AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS IN THE VICINITY.
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND REMAINING N-NW
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
8KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE


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