Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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914
FXUS63 KMPX 081732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1132 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

REGIONAL RADAR WAS DEPICTED ONGOING -SHSN ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MN/EASTERN DAKOTAS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. IN
EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI...LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE BLSN REGION WIDE...CAUSING VSBYS IN THE
IFR/MVFR RANGE...WITH SOME VLIFR CONDS WHERE WIND SPEEDS GUST IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE...THE ACCOMPANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.0K. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HRS...BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

KMSP...

ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THRU THE
AFTN...WITH VSBYS OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 2-4SM. THESE MVFR CIGS
/AOA 2.0K/ WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING VFR
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE STRONGEST 24-28 KTS...WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WIND NW AT 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND N...BCMG W 5KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-
     048-054>058-064>069-075>077-084-085.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     049>053-059>063-070-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ083-
     092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ083-092-093.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ073-074-082-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT



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