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000
FXUS63 KGRR 052350
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COLD WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COLD AND
DRY AIR INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT. WENT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR
SKIES...DEEP SNOW AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS.

THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WENT WITH MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE ON
FRIDAY IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THINKING THAT
THICKER CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO ADD CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION
BEGINS BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SNOW AS THE P-TYPE WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S. ANY
ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER AN INCH. FAIR WX IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TEMPS WILL UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING WELL
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. PREDOMINANTLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z ECMWF AND GLOBAL GEM GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW SO FAR OUT IN TIME AND 12Z GFS
GUIDANCE HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 12 KNOTS.

REGARDING CLOUDS...SOME MID/HIGH CEILINGS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 15000FT. THERE IS SOME STRATOCUMULUS WITH
BASES AROUND 3500FT DOWN TOWARDS JXN AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS
SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTH SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...SOME SCT-BKN
3500FT CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2014

CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE AND LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. STABLE
RIVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE
IS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO