Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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268
FXUS63 KGRR 311603
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1203 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

High pressure will bring another mostly sunny day today then a
cold front will touch off some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Cooler weather will follow for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Fair weather today and tonight as sfc high moves across the
centrAL Great Lakes. A moist return flow on Wednesday will fuel a
few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Marginal severe weather chances remain for Wednesday and
Wednesday night as cold front moves in with lifted indices going
negative and shear increasing from about 20 to 25 knots during the
afternoon to 25 to 30 knots in the evening as the front moves in.

Hail and strong winds with multicell storms or bowing line
segments are the main threats. The storms should clear the eastern
zones by Thursday morning with fair and cooler weather to follow.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Models continue to show an Alberta Clipper tracking through the
Great Lakes Region over the weekend.  The GFS slows the system
down...closing the mid level wave off.  This results in more
widespread and prolonged showers Saturday into Sunday.  The High Res
Euro shifts the main axis of precipitation east of Michigan by
Sunday Morning...keeping the system more open. I will keep the
mention of showers going for both days. Instability is showing up as
well. Thus there is now an elevated risk for a few thunderstorms to
develop as well. I did lower the temperatures on Sunday and into
early next week because of the arrival of the low level thermal
trough.

The period will start off dry with high pressure tracking through
the region. Cooler than normal weather is forecasted as the 850 mb
thermal trough tracks through on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 716 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions will continue through tonight. East to southeast
winds will be at or below 10 knots.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through Wednesday night but winds will gust to 20 knots at times
tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1203 PM EDT Tue May 31 2016

River levels are stable or slowly falling and near normal for this
time of year. Parts of the Kalamazoo basin are even slightly below
normal. We expect around half an inch or less of rain Wednesday
into Thursday, which should produce only minor rises. This period
of rain will be followed by dry weather through the end of the
work week. This should help to limit the magnitude of the rises.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...Ostuno



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