Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 250811
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
310 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO WEST MICHIGAN
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE WHICH WILL
GENERATE DRY WEATHER FOR A DAY OR SO. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO
WEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S
AND 20S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AMID LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING AND MAINLY DEAL WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

KGRR-88D SHOWS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA BUT
ECHOS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH
AFTER MID MORNING AND HAVE DRY GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS ARE
HINTING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PUSH LIGHT RAIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY BUT MAY BECOME MIXED WITH
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A R/S MIX FOR THE JACKSON TO LANSING REGION AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH MI.  COLD AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...SO BY 06Z SUN
WHAT PRECIPITATION IS LEFT BEHIND...SHOULD BE SNOW.  TEMPERATURES DO
NOT COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO  WARRANT WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...SO ONLY VERY LOW POPS FORECASTED.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FOR TUESDAY.  THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP ANY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

AS OF 03Z IFR CIGS CONTINUED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN HAD
CHANGED TO SNOW AND IS NOW COMING TO AN END AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
PULLS OUT. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT I EXPECT MVFR CIGS (FUEL ALT)
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. DURING THE DAY DRY AIR COMES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z SO
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. I
WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014
WE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN ABV 3 FT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO 2 TO 4 FT BY EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER NEAR EAGLE...
SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT... AND THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS. ONLY
MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING IS EXPECTED AS THESE WILL CREST BELOW
BANKFULL. ADDITIONAL APPRECIABLE PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR
FRIDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...93








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