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000
FXUS63 KGRR 230722
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST TODAY PROVIDING LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH CLOUDS THIS WAY TONIGHT AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE COMING THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 60 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
SLIPPING TO THE MID 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER THURSDAY.

IR LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WISCONSIN WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED. THIS HIGH AND ACCOMPANYING FAIR SKIES WILL MOVE OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. WE/LL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL OCCLUDE AS
IT MOVES EAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ABLE TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN BY LATE TONIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY.

A 50 KT LLJ AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT LATE THURSDAY WILL BRING UP
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE/LL SEE
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER THAT WE/LL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS. LI/S ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY ABOVE
0C...AND MUCAPE IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CWA. SO
FOR THAT REASON WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

AFTER THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY. WE/LL LEAVE CHC POPS GOING THOUGH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN SAT NIGHT INTO TUE.  OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL THROUGH MON IS SW OF MI...HOWEVER NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT WE
WILL STAY DRY UP HERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI.  TUE APPEARS TO BE THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

HIGH RES EURO HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO
MON. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH A DRY EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILING.  HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION...THAT MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.  IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...DOWN IN INDIANA AND IL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

ON TUE AND UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.  THAT
COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.  SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A COLD LAYER NEAR THE
GROUND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN.  FOR MY
NORTHERN COUNTIES..THE HIGH RES EURO CAME IN WITH MORE OF A SNOW
LOOK TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUE.  THIS IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FEATURE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THINKING THESE WILL ERODE WITH TIME. HAVE SOME BROKEN CEILINGS IN
AT GRR AND LAN OVERNIGHT JUST ABOVE MVFR AT 3500FT.

OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH BASES ABOVE
20000FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LOWER INTO A MID DECK ABOVE 10000FT
WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WHICH IN TURN WILL LIMIT WAVES HEIGHTS TO LESS THAN 3 FEET. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COLD WATER TEMPS WILL
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND SPEEDS
ADJACENT TO THE SFC.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SCOTTVILLE...CROTON AND EVART. CURRENT
DOWNWARD TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SCOTTVILLE WILL DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CROTON AND EVART MAY LAST
ANOTHER FEW DAYS PENDING RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. THE TOTALS LOOK DECENT...AROUND ONE HALF AN INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH COULD SLOW RECENT PROGRESS ON
THE RIVERS IF WE REACH THE HIGHER END. GIVEN THE TIME ALLOTTED FOR
RIVERS TO RECEDE THIS NEXT EVENT MAY JUST BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE WEEK PANS OUT.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...93
HYDROLOGY...JAM