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000
FXUS63 KGRR 150728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATING
TREND OF TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW FLURRIES
WILL LINGER TODAY FOLLOWED BY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS EXITED MOST OF OUR AREA BUT SOME SLICK SPOTS ON
AREA ROADS ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3
INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE FALLING
TEMPS.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN
AROUND -14 TO -16 C. IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH MAX TEMPS
ONLY REACHING THE 30S WITH CONTINUED BRISK WNW FLOW CAA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BRINGING FAIR BUT COLD
WEATHER TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY AS FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.

THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S THURSDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING JUST A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN AND POSSIBLY WET SNOW BUT CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY SO AMOUNTS
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE. LOW PRESSURE AND A SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HANGS AROUND FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C
AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DROPPED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
HOLD DOWN MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND COLD SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A COLD NIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO LIFR IN
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MAINLY MVFR THEN VFR DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS AS SNOW EXITS THE AREA.

A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AND GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MID TO LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NO REAL CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER THINKING REGARDING HYDRO. THE AREAL
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN THREE
ROWS OF COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONTINUES
WITH WATER OVER ROADS...CULVERT WASHOUTS AND ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO
WATER IN THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING COUNTIES.

RIVER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
BEING ACROSS THE BASINS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERAL OF THE
HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON ALMOST VERTICAL RISES AS WATER ROUTES INTO
THE RIVERS. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
RELIEF NOT COMING UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN WATERS SLOWLY START TO
RECEDE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ039.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...DUKE