Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 231701
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
101 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT? OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

I PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY SINCE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT..SKIES CLEAR AND WITH THE
LONGER HOURS OF DARKNESS THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. DEW POINTS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S... SO IT WILL BE
EASY TO COOL TO THE DEW POINT GIVEN THAT.

ALSO GIVEN THE SUNNY...DRY WEATHER I INCREASED THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2 DEGREES FOR BOTH TODAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTROLS THE WEATHER TODAY BUT THEN A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THROUGH 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL... THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH SO
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EVEN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A SURFACE
AND UPPER HIGH WILL REST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS MO
AND INTO KS.  THIS LOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ONLY HELPS TO
BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE DOES SHOW SOME WEAKENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE COMES INTO IT.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS WAVE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PCPN AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STOUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE WARMEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 BEING COMMONPLACE.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AS OF NOW...THE IMPACTS TO THE TAFS SITES LOOKS LIMITED. WE WILL
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS POTENTIAL RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  I DID MAINTAIN THE MVFR FOG FOR KJXN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO ISSUES WORTHY OF NOTE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW
FALL ON AREA RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






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