Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 021921
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE AREA WILL SEE PLENTY OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
HITTING 80 AT MANY LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS COMES ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP THROUGH AT
LEAST WED NIGHT...IF NOT INTO THU. WE REMAIN UNDER THE MAIN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. THIS RIDGE SLIPS EAST...BUT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING REDEVELOPS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND AN
UPPER LOW REMAINS SE OF THE AREA.

WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR THE THU AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. WE SEE THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST AND UPPER LOW TO OUR SE MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A CHC OF SOME PCPN TO THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE STATE THU AFTERNOON AS IT SEEMS BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SE PRODUCING A BIT OF
INSTABILITY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE MAYBE ENOUGH LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
COMING FROM LAKE ERIE MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT COULD SNEAK IN TOWARD JACKSON.

THE BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL COME THU NIGHT AND
MORE SO BEYOND INTO THE LONG TERM. THIS IS WHEN THE SHORT WAVE TO
OUR WEST WILL MAKE IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. WE HAVE KEPT THE CHCS
SMALL FOR NOW AND ACROSS THE W/NW AS DEEP MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
REAL STRONG. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ON THU NIGHT DUE TO THE TIME OF
THE DAY AND LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY... SO WE ARE NOT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
OF THE WAVE THAT TRACKS THROUGH ON SUNDAY.   MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES IN THE MORNING AND DRAWS
UP MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVING IN WE
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  NEW HIGH RES EURO SHOWS
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  TIMING WILL
LIKELY BE IMPORTANT AS AN AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTION WOULD
INCREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL INCREASE THE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

SEEMS LIKE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER FOR FRIDAY.  THIS MODEL PUSHES ALL
THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI.  THE NEW
HIGH RES EURO ALSO HAS TRENDED TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY...SO A TREND SEEMS TO BE THERE.  WILL NOT FEATURE POPS HIGHER
THAN 50 PERCENT BASED ON THIS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP...THE WARMEST
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP CLOSER TO THE
LAKESHORE...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK. THUS TAFS FOR
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

HEADLINE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS LOOKS LIMITED THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE A BIT. THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MOIST AIR MOVING IN OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NO IMMEDIATE IMPACTS ARE PENDING ON AREA RIVERS AS DRIER WEATHER
HAS MATERIALIZED AND SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. MINOR UPWARD MOVEMENT CAN BE SEEN AT MAPLE RAPIDS AND
JACKSON...BUT MANY OF THE SITES HAVE STABILIZED. I SUSPECT THIS
WILL BE THE CASE WITH BOTH AFOREMENTIONED POINTS AS WELL.

THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK. AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-HALF AN MAY BE A DECENT AREA
WIDE AVERAGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL UPWARD TRENDS ON RIVERS WHEN
THE TIME COMES. NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...NJJ



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