Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 272359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE IN OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE WEATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEK. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS THEN...SO I WENT
WITH MAINLY SHOWERS.

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP TUESDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER RISK GOING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. I FEATURED
SCT/WDLY SCT STORMS TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WED AND THU. FOR
FRI AND SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...SO SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER
RISK FOR STORMS THEN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD AND UNSETTLED AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE STORMS ARE EXITING THE AREA BUT NOW I AM WATCHING AN AREA OF
MVFR CIGS EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. I
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BECOME MVFR BY 06Z OR SOONER. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THAT COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 4 FEET. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SET OF
HEADLINES GOING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STORMS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG THIS EVENING...SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
BASIN RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOCAL DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO
MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOURS TIME. THUS THE MAIN HYDRO
RISK FROM THIS SITUATION WILL BE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS





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