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000
FXUS63 KGRR 160736
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
336 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
HELP TO PUSH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. A
LITTLE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RESIDUAL PCPN CHCS
TODAY WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN AGAIN ON MON WITH THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST.

SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPANDED NICELY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PCPN AREA IS SHIFTING EAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...EXCEPT FOR A TRAILING LINE THAT HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
STATIONARY FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN BACK THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE LLJ AND SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST
THIS MORNING...AND THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
NICELY...AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS APPROACH 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
H850 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS C.

WE SHOULD REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS THE CASE AS WE SEE NO REAL TRIGGER TO FIRE
OFF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS EVEN AS SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD BUILD.
THE COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN BUILD.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON MON. THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON MON. THIS WILL
SEND A SECONDARY SFC FRONT THROUGH. WE WILL SEE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY BUILD ON MON...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO
WRLY FLOW OFF THE COOLER LAKE EXPECTED. JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE MODELS
INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST UPWIND OF THE LAKES WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND AND WHERE SOME BETTER LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE LIKELY. IF STORMS CAN FIRE...WE DO HAVE SOME
DECENT SHEAR VALUES IN PLACE AROUND 40 KNOTS...SO SOME STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL STORMS POSSIBLE MON EVENING...BEFORE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS LOST AND THE SECONDARY FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF
THE STATE IN THE EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL RESULT ON TUE AS H850
TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS C. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY...SO NO PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR TUE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER... THEN SLIP AWAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
RETURN SLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF TSTMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
MCS/S RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY COME UP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING...
AS A RESULT OF BOTH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS AND SOME BRIEF
SYNOPTIC WIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS. WINDS ARE BACK TO BELOW
20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTH...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE ALL
DOWN THE NEARSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MON/MON NIGHT TIME
FRAME AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THE ONLY HYDROLOGY ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE ONGOING
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND THE RESPONSE THAT WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT.

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THE EXPECTED INCH OF
RAIN WITH THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY CAUSE A RISE ON THE AREA
RIVERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HYDROLOGY MODELS WILL BE
RUN THIS MORNING AT THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER AND WE WILL GET A
BETTER IDEA ON THE FCST RISES EXPECTED.

RAINFALL ON MONDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY BIG PROBLEMS WITH THAT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ