Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 311119
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
719 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND
TO THE INTERSTATE 69 AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL SLOWLY
CLEAR BUT IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S. FROST IS EXPECTED IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE MONDAY THROUGH AT THURSDAY WITH SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE PRIMARY ISSUES WITH THIS FORECAST IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL
END...AND THE SECTOR OF FROST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS.

OUR SYSTEM IS TRACKING JUST AS THE FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTED IT
WOULD. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE DEFORMATION RAIN BAND COULD
STILL RESULT IN BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OVER INTERSTATE 94 AREA SO SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THERE.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON... FROST IS EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. I ISSUES A FROST ADVISORY TO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT I STILL THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER SO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A FAIRLY INACTIVE PERIOD IS DEVELOPING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP DRIER
AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL FRIDAY. THAT/S WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BRING MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PLAINS. I/M NOT TOO BULLISH ON PCPN YET AS THE
MOISTURE FEED ISN/T FROM THE GULF AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE COMING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL WRING OUT OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER ONTARIO AND PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE CWA. THUS THE BEST CHANCE
PCPN PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY
AFTER THAT.

HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL OCCUR TODAY. ALL
AREAS VFR BY 00Z.

THE RAIN HAS ENDED AT MKG AND GRR AND WILL SOON END AT AZO AND
BTL. LAN AND JXN MAY HAVE RAIN WITH MVFR/IRF CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR
THE GRR AREA BY 15Z BUT THAT WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO EXIT AZO
THROUGH JXN DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE HURON. ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 00Z HOWEVER. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

I DISCONTINUED THE MARINE AND SURF ZONE HEADLINES NORTH OF HOLLAND
AS WINDS AND WAVES WILL NOT BE STRONG OR HIGH ENOUGH TO MEET THE
CRITERIA. EVEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS IT IS MARGINAL BUT I
WILL HOLD ON TO THE HEADLINES THERE NONE THE LESS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY RISING DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
OF GREATEST CONCERN ARE THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE UPPER
GRAND RIVER BASIN / GREATER LANSING REGION. FORECASTS BASED ON 1.50
INCHES OF RAIN BEING RECEIVED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING HAVE THE
SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR HOLT AND LOOKING GLASS RIVER NEAR EAGLE CLIMBING
ABOVE BANKFULL. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE
RECEIVED IN THIS AREA... BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES
FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FORECASTS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
LATE THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
     043>046-051.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ056-
     064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM


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