Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGRR 261925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
325 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Corrected Short Term and Long Term period times...

Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A low pressure system moving east across the Great Lakes region
will continue to bring rain through this evening and mixed rain
and snow north of interstate 96. Light precipitation will linger into
Thursday morning before fair weather returns late Thursday through
Friday. The next system will bring a few showers Friday night and


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A polling of 12Z model fcst soundings and analysis of wbz heights
and model trends information suggests that pcpn will continue to
mix with/change over to wet light snow at times late this
afternoon through tonight north of I-96.

The greatest potential for light snow accumulations of an inch or two
mainly on grassy surfaces will be near to north of a line from Big
Rapids to Mt. Pleasant. Slightly lower snow accumulations of around a
half an inch on grassy surfaces are anticipated north of I-96 and
south of a line from Pentwater to Big Rapids and Mt. Pleasant.

For areas near to south of I-96 plain rain will continue late
this afternoon and evening before gradually tapering off late
tonight into Thursday morning as the low pressure system continues
to move east to just east of Detroit by 12Z Thursday.

Fair weather will then return Thursday afternoon through Friday as
a high pressure ridge builds in. Temperatures will remain
seasonably cool through Thursday before moderating significantly
beginning Friday as as winds become southerly on the back side of
the departing ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

We continue to see a trend towards drier weather in the forecast
through Saturday. There might be a better chance for rain Saturday
night however.

It looks increasingly likely that Friday night will be dry as
significantly more ECMWF ensemble members keep precipitation north
of the area.

Ensembles, particularly the GEFS, better favor rain chances Saturday
night into early Sunday morning with better chances farther south
near I-94. I could see rain chances in this time frame gradually
increasing as we get closer to the event.

GFS deterministic and several GEFS members suggest another shot of
rain Monday night with a pronounced upper trough, but the GFS family
differs significantly from the ECMWF and CMC solutions that feature
substantial upper ridging with rain staying well north into Canada,
so not a lot of confidence in rain here at this point.

Otherwise, a good chance for warm temperatures next week with highs
Tuesday making a run at 70 degrees to the south. This would be about
15 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Little change to previous thinking. We will be predominantly IFR
into the overnight hours with LIFR cigs possible after midnight.
There is a possibility for airport minimums to be met...most
likely in the 09-13Z timeframe. The good news is that we`re quite
confident that we`ll see only liquid precipitation at our
terminals. A rain/snow mix is expected to remain north of KMOP
(Mount Pleasant), with little likelihood for ice accumulation
even there.


Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The small craft advisory remains in effect through late this
evening for east winds up to 30 knots and wave heights of up to 4
to 5 feet. 12Z glerl wave model guidance continues to suggest that
wind speeds and wave heights will subside late tonight.


Issued at 1254 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Widespread rainfall will continue over the area through tonight.
Between 0.50-1.00 inches of total rainfall is expected. Most rivers
and streams will stay below bankfull. River advisories are out
for Sycamore Creek at Holt and Maple River at Maple Rapids.
Flooding is not expected.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.



SHORT TERM...Laurens
MARINE...Laurens is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.