Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 031143
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WHICH IS POSSIBLE ON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY FROM
AROUND 80 TODAY...TO THE LOWER 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY TO THE MIDDLE
80S ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIVES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LIMITED CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR
SUMMER WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WAS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO KEEP THE
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON THE FOURTH ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...SLIDING INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY EVENING
AROUND PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CONVERGENCE ON
IT IN THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH A POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE GFS INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG NEAR MT PLEASANT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PULLING
AWAY FROM LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT...STILL FEEL
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN A 20 PCT CHC OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON THE FOURTH.

OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH. ANY PRECIP WILL
BE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH TO NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE UNTIL A FRONT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT QUICKER...PROBABLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  CLIMATICALLY THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE TIME FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO IF THIS VERIFY WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT PROCEEDS THE
FRONT.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SE CWA MID
DAY TUESDAY IF THIS TIMING HOLDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  IT APPEARS THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY
TRAVELING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  AREAS SOUTH OF I-
96 COULD SEE MORE RAIN MOVE IN...DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KMKG WHERE A WEST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP...WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 20000FT OR ABOVE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF
4000-5000FT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KAZO AND KBTL. OTHERWISE...SOME
5000FT CEILINGS MAY PRESS INTO KMKG LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW
BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK
NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND
LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...DUKE



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