Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 261712
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
112 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
TRANQUIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE FAR NORTHWESTERNMOST PERIPHERY OF A LIGHT PCPN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OHIO VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY JUST CLIP OUR FAR SE
FCST AREA FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING TODAY DOWN TOWARD KJXN WHERE
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW.

OTHERWISE TRANQUIL AND COLD WX IS ANTICIPATED BUT IT WILL BE COLD
WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -16 TO -18 C ALONG THE LAKE MI
SHORELINE BY 12Z FRI. HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT AT UNDER AN INCH AND CONFINED TO OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

FAIR BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WX IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND TWENTY
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN
MODERATE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A RELATIVELY FLAT/ZONAL UPPER FLOW
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE FEATURES TO WATCH.

SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND SFC
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY... WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN
THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 45 WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR PRECIP TYPE...
ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS A PRE EXISTING DRY AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE PRECIP MAY LEAD TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THE LAST TWO OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A QUICK
BURST OF QPF OF NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. IF THIS SOLUTION WERE
TO VERIFY THERE MAY END UP BEING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-96 BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND THERMAL
PROFILES. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THE GFS HAS NO HINT OF
THIS FEATURE.

WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD THE THE
NORTH TONIGHT SOME OF THE STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING. WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEEK
AHEAD... THE FALLING TREND SHOULD INCREASE AND RIVER LEVELS SHOULD
BE LOWER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63





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