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000
FXUS63 KGRR 041157
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
656 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96 WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW TODAY.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.  TO THE SOUTH OF I-96
THE SNOW WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS THERE SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.  THEN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-96 WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR LESS
OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
20...WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY THURSDAY.  THEN MAINLY 30
TO 35 FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING THE U.P. TODAY AND DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  UPSTREAM OBS IN
WISCONSIN SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VSBYS OF 1-2 MILES HEADING OUR
WAY.  SATELLITE IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY MORNING STILL SUPPORTED
ENOUGH OPEN WATER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW
PIVOTS FROM WSW THIS MORNING...TO WEST BY MID DAY...TO WNW BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  SO NO ONE AREA WILL SEE ANY PERSISTENT ENHANCEMENT.
FEEL WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT DAYTIME ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-96...BUT TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH...WHERE I-94
SHOULD ONLY SEE A LIGHT DUSTING.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT WAS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER NE
MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK ESE TOWARD CHICAGO BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHOULD SPREAD A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  ACCUMS SHOULD BE
AROUND AN INCH...ALTHOUGH WESTERN VAN BUREN COULD SEE CLOSER TO TWO
INCHES IF A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT PERSISTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER QUEBEC BULGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE EASTERLY...SO NO LAKE EFFECT.

THE LONG AWAITED WARMUP WILL BE GRADUAL OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPS GOING FROM AROUND 20 TODAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S
THURSDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOW WILL STILL BE CHILLY...AROUND 10 ABOVE
TONIGHT...THEN WITH SKIES CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SINGLE DIGITS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

OVERALL THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK MINIMAL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING IN THE LONG TERM.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LOWER MI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE DGZ
DOES BECOME MOIST AND THERE IS SOME LIFT SO I WILL MAINTAIN A RISK
FOR PRECIPITATION.  SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE
ONSET COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE WE WET BULB
DOWN.  FOR NOW I KEPT THE DOMINANT TYPE AS SNOW.  A GOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ARRIVING FRIDAY.

THERE STILL COULD BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS LOOK LEAN ON THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO I CONSIDERED GOING DRY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL AWAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN BEFORE CHANGING
THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...THEN AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF MI ON MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.  WE COULD
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOP IN THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF LIFT AND MOISTURE.  OVERALL I PREFER THE COOLER HIGH RES
EURO SOLUTION THAT FEATURES SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS THIS
HAS BEEN THE PATTERN OF THE WINTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE TAFS SITES FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO AVIATION IMPACTS TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST MI. ALREADY KMKG HAS
IFR AND LIFR COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IFR LOOKS LIKELY FOR ABOUT A 2 TO 3 HR
PERIOD THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS BAND IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME...I DID NOT GO WITH IFR FOR KJXN. HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IFR COULD OCCUR AT KGRR AND KMKG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW
I FEATURE MVFR AS I AM NOT CERTAIN THE LOW CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND COULD CLIP KAZO KBTL AND KJXN WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

STABLE ICE COVERAGE CONTINUES ALONG WITH A LOW THREAT FOR ANY ICE
JAMS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUN
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HELP MELT A BIT OF THE SNOW AND PERHAPS
SOME RIVER ICE. SUBSTANTIAL MELTING IS NOT EXPECTED. WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY MAY HELP ACCELERATE MELTING WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 40.

CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5
INCH RANGE AND LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED IN RECENT DAYS. STABLE RIVER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME LOSS OF SWE IS
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...HOVING