Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 192348
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
648 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING OVER
MOST AREAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AREA NORTH AND EAST OF LANSING
WILL SEE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20 THURSDAY.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL REMAIN
COLD.

A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR
TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN...THAT MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS A MIXED RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

THE COLD AIR WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURE RETURNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LITTLE QUESTION WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS EVENING. ONCE THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER MODE. THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. I CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WE ISSUED AROUND NOON THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
MORNING.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGLY DIGGING 95 KNOT 300 MB JET
CORE THAT STAYS SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. THAT WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN DEEP IN THE
COLD AIR AND WITH PREVAILING WEST WINDS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
ASSURED. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING WILL INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 10000 FT
AGL. THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY. I WOULD EXPECT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL IN THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 FROM THE LAKE SHORE TO ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 30 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS IN CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP BLOW THE SNOW BANDS WELL INLAND SO
EVEN LANSING AND JACKSON SHOULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

ONCE THE UPPER JET MOVES BACK NORTH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY
MORNING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A
LITTLE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THAT
COULD SPELL SOME PROBLEMS TRAVEL WISE FOR A FEW HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SATURDAY SHOW A PRONOUNCED WARMING AT H85 WITH
BELOW 0C TEMPS NEAR THE SFC. THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLEET DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COLD
LAYER NEAR THE GROUND IS. BY 18Z TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING AND ALL PCPN SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY
THOUGH DURING THE MORNING.

THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ALL OF THE PCPN WILL BE
RAIN. AN INCH OR BETTER IS POSSIBLE WHICH IN AND OF ITSELF COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADD AN INCH OF RAIN AND ROOF
LOAD ISSUES MAY START TO CROP UP. ADDITIONALLY...THE RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN SOME SNOW-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THUS MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED.

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THE SUPPLY OF WARM AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. LOOK FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE LOW
OCCLUDES AND COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD
AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

IFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING FROM MKG TO GRR WITH PERIODS OF IFR
AT LAN AND FROM AZO TO JXN. WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

I CONTINUED THE GALE WARING AS FORECAST UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY...
LIKELY WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM THEN TILL 7 AM
FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

THE NCRFC ONCE AGAIN RAN THEIR RIVER MODELS FOR US TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND ON TOP OF
ALL THE SNOW WE NOW HAVE ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE ON AREA RIVERS.
IT WOULD SEEM WE WILL MOSTLY SEE RIVERS RISE TO NEAR ACTION STAGE
BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. ANOTHER ISSUE HERE MAY BE
ICE CLOGGED DRAINS AND WATER LOADING ON ROOFS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-038-043-
     044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM






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